Wealthtrack

The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve continues to surge at an unprecedented rate, up 83% y/y to a historic level, $7.59 trillion at the latest count. According to our WEALTHTRACK podcast guest, financial historian, and long-time market observer James Grant, interest rates, the “central pricing mechanism for financial markets” have been pushed to artificially low levels by the Fed’s policies which have created numerous market bubbles. He cites Bitcoin as one of the most extreme examples. WEALTHTRACK #1735 published on February 26, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/bitcoin-is-one-of-many-bubbles-of-historic-proportions-today-says-financial-historian-james-grant/ Common Sense: The Investor’s Guide to Equality, Opportunity, and Growth: https://amzn.to/3sxkIJm --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Part 2 of 2 Old fashioned asset allocation used to be a fairly simple exercise: 60% individual stocks, usually U.S. large-caps and 40% bonds, mostly investment-grade corporates, some Treasury securities for liquidity, and a smattering of municipal bonds for higher tax bracket individuals.    Today it's a whole different ball game, juggling multiple global asset classes, using complex computer modeling, algorithms, pricing formulas, and intensive analysis.   This is the realm of Sébastien Page, head of T. Rowe Price’s Global Multi-Asset division where he oversees $350 billion in assets. Last week on WEALTHTRACK we discussed the concepts in his new book, Beyond Diversification: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Asset Allocation.   This week we will address the current investment environment and how he and his team are positioning clients’ portfolios. What does Page think of these alternative asset classes? We’ll find out.  WEALTHTRACK Episode #1734 broadcast on February 19, 2021

Part 1 of 2:  Talk to most investment professionals and they will tell you that portfolio diversification is the key to successful investing and that asset allocation among multiple asset classes, not individual security selection, accounts for as much as 100% of investment returns. Being broadly diversified among different asset classes is supposed to give you strong exposure to market rallies and protection in down markets as non-correlated assets zig when others zag and soften the downside impact. However, there are times when diversification doesn’t seem to work. Take the huge sell-off in the spring of 2020, the shortest bear market in history when asset classes plunged pretty much across the board, even gold and Treasuries took a hit.  What are the lessons to be learned about the usefulness of diversification from 2020’s experience? Is there a better way?  Our guest today is a financial thought leader in asset allocation at T. Rowe Price. Sébastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset at the f

One of the most notable characteristics of the last decade was the wide divergence in market performance. We have reported many times on the narrow group of superstars, mainly large-cap U.S. tech stocks and the much wider universe of laggards, value and small-cap stocks in particular.  In 2020 that divergence blew up.  Small-cap went from worst to first. The year began disastrously.   Small-caps ended the year with their best quarterly gain ever, a stunning 31% advance in the index, handily beating large-caps for the quarter.  When it was all over the Russell 2000 had gained 101.3% from its March 18th low to year-end, although it lagged large-cap and tech for the entire year.   We have a WEALTHTRACK exclusive this week with an investment legend whose specialty is in-depth financial analysis in the small-cap universe. He is Charlie Dreifus, lead portfolio manager of the Royce Special Equity Fund  Before delving into small-caps I asked Dreifus to share his perspective on curre

Blast off! Stock markets are setting records, with tech stocks leading the charge once again. “Don’t fight the Fed” should now encompass “don’t fight the Treasury, fiscal stimulus, vaccinations and investor demand for ‘real’ (after inflation) returns.” The Wall Street Journal reports that the “S&P 500 rose 14.3% from Election Day through Inauguration Day, its best performance on record for that period.” (The Wall Street Journal “Stocks Climb To Records, Led By Tech Sector” 1/21/21)    In retrospect, 2020 was an entire year for the record books:  - A once in a century global pandemic; - Unprecedented, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus; - A brief deep recession and the shortest bear market in U.S. history; - A record-breaking stock market rally; - The continuation of near record-low interest rates - And the election of a new president with a very different policy agenda.  Portfolio rebalancing is just one of the actions on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. In part 2 of

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our professional and personal lives, including the state of our finances. Whether you or a loved one are among the more than 20 million Americans who lost their jobs in the spring of 2020 in the depths of the lockdowns, or one of the millions of Americans who saw their retirement portfolios plunge in the shortest bear market on record in February and March, (and if you stayed invested have benefitted from the markets rebound), or if you or a loved one are among the 20 million Americans who have been stricken by COVID your finances have been affected. Financial services firm Morningstar has also been paying attention. In a recent article, “What the Coronavirus Means for the Future of Financial Planning,” its Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz addressed the issue and we have asked her to enlighten us. WEALTHTRACK # 1729 broadcast on January 15, 2021 More info: Books mentioned in  the episode: https://wealthtrack.com/the-pandemic-era-requires-rethin

We have a special treat for you. Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, a pioneer in the field of behavioral finance, long-time Yale professor, financial innovator, and prolific author. Shiller is also the co-creator of the widely cited gauge of U.S. housing prices, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and creator of the cyclically adjusted PE ratio known as the Cape Ratio which is a price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous ten years. Because it includes ten years of earnings many consider it to be a more reliable gauge of market value. His presence could not be more timely. He is known for identifying the tech and housing bubbles long before anyone else did, and here we are in the midst of an economy crushing pandemic with home prices booming and stock prices hitting new records.  We started with the stock market, his analysis of the record-setting performance. WEALTHTRACK # 1728 broadcast on January 08,2021 More info: https://wealth

This week, in part 2 he will share his fifty years of economic perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and how the pandemic has changed the economy and markets. It will be a fascinating conversation with one of the best business cycle analysts of our era.      Every year at around this time we sit down for an in-depth interview with legendary economist Ed Hyman.  Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s number one economist in Institutional Investor magazine’s prestigious annual survey of institutional investors for an unprecedented forty years.     WEALTHTRACK #1726 originally broadcast on December 18, 2020 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/covids-extraordinary-economic-impact-from-wall-streets-1-economist-ed-hyman/ Part 1: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/ Suggested Reading:  CREATORS: FROM CHAUCER TO WALT DISNEY, by Paul Johnson  https://amzn.to/3r9NvDU --- Support th

It's an annual tradition on WEALTHTRACK to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty years!  Hyman is a Wall Street legend. His ability to gather reams of economic data, including proprietary information from many sources including his weekly company surveys of industries ranging from retailers to restaurants, to homebuilders, truckers, and even Christmas tree vendors gives him an ability to take the current pulse of the many players in our huge and diverse economy.   This year we have even more to discuss than usual. We have extended our conversation into an exclusive two-part series. This week Hyman will share his outlook for the economy in 2021. He’ll explain why he expects a “blowout” in the second half but also why there are considerable challenges to get from here to there. Next week we’ll get his perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and what he learned from the experience.  This week we start with t

According to Medicare benefits expert, Dr. Katy Votava COVID-19 has altered several aspects of Medicare coverage and procedures. She will tell us what’s different and how to take advantage of the changes. She will also help us meet the deadline for Medicare’s annual enrollment period which ends on December 7th and allows medicare beneficiaries to evaluate their Medicare Advantage Plans and part D, prescription drug plans, and shift to different providers if it makes sense.  Votava is a Medicare expert who advises individuals, small businesses, and financial planners from her healthcare consulting business, GOODCARE.com. She is also the author of Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers, now in its 7th edition and an Amazon bestseller. It is a straightforward, easy to navigate guide to Medicare which is a very complex multi-part system that frequently does warrant annual updating by its beneficiaries. An estimated 90 percent of Americans pay too much for their Medicare coverage.  WEALTHT

Can investing be simple? Can we stop worrying about what’s happening on Wall Street, in Washington, with Fed policy, inflation, corporate earnings, and numerous other headline-making concerns? Can we just get on with our lives and still invest successfully?  According to this week’s guest, the answer is yes, and we shouldn’t even care what the market is doing.   What should we care about? How should we invest? That is the focus of this week’s exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview.   Our guest is Charles Ellis, the author of the investment classic WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME, available now in its 2017 7th edition. Ellis is the author of 16 other books including the recently published 10th-anniversary edition of THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING, co-written with his good friend, Princeton economics professor Burton Malkiel.    Ellis is a globally recognized financial thought leader, investment consultant, and advisor to governments, institutions, and endowments. He also cares deeply about helping invest

It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for investors this week.  Our focus is China. China of course is where COVID-19 originated in late 2019. It felt the impact first. It shut down vast swathes of its economy in response and it is now coming out of it, first.  All indications are that the world’s second-largest economy, by some measures occasionally the largest, is making a comeback. It looks like an impressive one.   The International Monetary Fund is predicting China’s economy will expand 1.9% this year, and estimates it will be the only major world economy to show any growth. This week’s guest says that China’s economy is well on its way back to normal and that there are multiple opportunities for investors in the world’s second-largest stock market.   Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia on how back to normal is China? We will find out.   WEALTHTRACK #1720 broadcast on November 13, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/chinas-economic-comeb

What a week! The widely predicted blue wave of Democrats sweeping into the White House, taking over the Senate majority, and increasing their dominance in Congress has failed to materialize.  As far as the stock market is concerned, a divided government is a plus because not a lot will change in the way of tax policy and regulations.  Investor optimism is not shared by Federal Reserve officials who expressed ongoing concern about the economy and the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in today’s Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement.  “The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year... “ “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses c

One of the most striking financial characteristics of the pandemic experience has been the seeming disconnect between the economy and the stock market. The economy was severely damaged by the lockdown of business and sheltering in place policies put in effect earlier this year, but until this week the market has been rising with more stocks  The unemployment rate which had fallen to 3.5% last year, the lowest level since 1969, skyrocketed with the lockdowns, reaching 14.7% in April, a level not seen since the Great Depression. Since then it’s fallen, to a still elevated 7.9 % in September, the last report before the election.  How sound are the economy and markets going into the election? What could change? Joining us with some answers this week will be financial thought leader, Jason Trennert. Trennert is co-founder, Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas, He says the wide policy differences between Biden and Trump call for different portfolio strategies post-election.  W

COVID-19 reminded us that life-changing “Black Swan” events don’t just happen once in a century. They are an ongoing reality.  In the last twenty years, we have lived through 9/11, the global financial crisis, and now a global pandemic with the unintended consequence of rolling economic lockdowns.  On an investment level, all of these events have delivered a sharp hit to financial markets from which they have recovered. Such is the resilience and strength of the U.S. capital markets and the underlying economy.  But on a personal finance level, the impact of these events can be much more damaging and long-lasting, particularly for individuals nearing retirement or in it,  which is why we asked this week’s guest to join us. Clients in those vulnerable years are his focus.  Our guest this week is Mark Cortazzo, a certified financial planner, Founder, and Senior Partner of MACRO Consulting Group an independent wealth management firm. We asked Cortazzo to walk us through the conversa

Are we in the midst of a new economic expansion and secular bull market? Those are the signals from ClearBridge Investments’ Recovery Dashboard. Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze takes us through the indicators flashing green.  WEALTHTRACK #1716A published on October 21, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-economic-expansion/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

One extraordinary characteristic of this pandemic period has been stock market performance. A recent Wall Street Journal headline captures it perfectly: “Turbocharged stocks blast off.”  In its third-quarter market’s review, the Journal points out that “more stocks skyrocketed at least 400% in the first three quarters of the year than in any comparable period since 2000.” This is not a tide that is lifting all boats, anything but. The overwhelming majority of the winners are tech or biotech-related.  Whether value’s short-lived outperformance will continue is of particular interest to this week’s guest. She is Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. The combination of its deep value and international focus has proven to be challenging in this era of high performing tech and U.S. centric stocks, but Ketterer and her colleagues now call this a value investor’s dream market as more high quality, financially strong companies sell at “shockingly” cheap valuations.  Ke

How surprised have you been by the market’s supercharged recovery from the March lows and the economy’s rebound from the COVID trough? By any measure, the snapback has been extraordinary. The shortest bear market in U.S. history, a mere 33 weeks from late February to late March, and a much faster recovery than expected.   As this week’s guest, Nancy Lazar told clients recently: “In the last expansion it took almost 9 years (until 2018) for unemployment to fall to 4.0%. Today the Fed expects (more likely wishes) to see 4.0% just 4 years into this expansion. And since this cycle’s Drivers are leveraged to the Fed’s main policy tool - interest rates - the Fed’s in a good position to make it happen.”   We will discuss why she is optimistic about the economy’s progress based on some unappreciated and under-reported trends she and her team have been tracking both pre-pandemic and now. Be prepared for a fascinating and different analysis of the U.S. economy and why its recovery powers are so strong. WEALT

“Don’t fight the Fed” has become an accepted Wall Street adage. It’s a phrase coined by Martin Zweig, a legendary technical analyst, and investor who predicted the 1987 market crash to the day and was the author of the 1970 investment classic Winning On Wall Street.  Zweig wrote that “The monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.” Fast forward 50 years and “Don’t fight the Fed” is very much alive. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career.  He says we are in the midst of a Fed-induced market melt-up right now. He is Ed Yardeni, a respected Ph.D. economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who leads  Yardeni Research, a global investment strategy firm he founded in 2007. A prolific writer, publishing a detailed daily Morning Briefing and comprehensive What I am Reading list, he is also the author of a new book,  Fed Watching for Fun and

How do you successfully take over and run a legendary fund with a 60-year track record of excellence? We are about to find out this week in a rare interview with a fund manager who is doing just that.  The fund is the T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.  The small-cap growth fund has 34 billion dollars in assets and carries a Five-Star, Silver Analyst rating from Morningstar. Prior to taking over the fund, Spencer established his own record of excellence with the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund which he ran from 2012 until early in 2019. During his tenure the fund delivered nearly 22% annualized returns, far outdistancing its benchmark and peer group. What does New Horizons’ legacy mean to Spencer? How is he changing it? We’ll find out.  WEALTHTRACK #1713 originally broadcast on September 25, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/next-generation-great-investor-josh-spencer-on-taking-over-t-rowe-prices-new-horizons-fund/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support