Wealthtrack

COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into many retirement plans as millions of Americans were thrown out of work and many were forced to tap into retirement accounts to pay the bills.   The experience has made Social Security benefits even more valuable to potential and current retirees.  According to Social Security expert Mary Beth Franklin, they account for half or more of total income for 50% of married couples and 70% of unmarried individuals.  They are the only source of guaranteed income for life for most Americans, and they have the added bonus of adjusting for inflation, thus protecting purchasing power.  Mary Beth Franklin joins us to discuss how to make the most of Social Security benefits.  Franklin is an acknowledged expert on this topic.      She has written that deciding when and how to claim Social Security benefits is one of the most important decisions that retirees will ever make. In this week’s show, I asked her how the pandemic is affecting thos

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our lives:  our jobs, our health, our family and social interactions, children’s education, and leisure time.  But what has it done to retirement prospects? Not surprisingly, it has hurt them.  According to a survey of American workers with qualified retirement savings accounts, “...almost half (49%)  had experienced a reduction in work income through job loss, or decrease in hours and/or a pay cut”. Also, “...workers who lost their jobs or experienced a drop in income due to the COVID-19 pandemic were at least twice as likely to take money from their qualified retirement savings accounts as those who weren’t impacted.”    Retirement plans for older workers are particularly stressed. Not only do they have less time to make up any shortfalls, but seniors are more at risk from COVID-19 than younger people, so returning to work is more problematic.   According to the Urban Institute, the combined rate of unemployment and und

All The Reasons To Be Bullish - This Week on WEALTHTRACKRemember the discussions about the shape of the economic recovery? Would it be a “V”, a “W”, or maybe even a hockey stick? The jury might still be out about the economy, but as far as the markets are concerned there is no question. V’s abound. The top five S&P 500 companies by market capitalization - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Facebook - all but the last topping a trillion in market value, are sharply higher. It is no surprise to this week’s guest. Ed Yardeni turned bullish nearly to the day of the market turnaround. He and his team are now calling this a Fed-led meltup. They say it could turn into the Mother of All Meltups, what they jokingly refer to as MAMU if it continues. They would feel a lot better about its sustainability if the market had some sort of correction or consolidation. So far it hasn’t complied. Yardeni is a Ph.D. economist, long time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by ins

One of the biggest issues to emerge from the pandemic is income inequality. It has become even more pronounced as millions of low-income workers lose their jobs and the much smaller number of high-income workers keep theirs and benefit from a powerful bull market. This week’s guest is on a crusade to change this dynamic, by giving opportunities to lower-income individuals and their families to achieve economic success. He is Great Value Investor and Financial Thought Leader Joel Greenblatt. He has a new book Common Sense: The Investor’s Guide To Equality, Opportunity, and Growth and like Thomas Paine who successfully campaigned against the monarchical and tyrannical rule of Great Britain over the 13 colonies in 1776 with his widely-read pamphlet Common Sense, Greenblatt is on a crusade to disrupt the established order in a few key areas including education, corporate hiring, taxation, and immigration. One area ripe for disruption is the education system which he says is “unfair, unequal and doesn’t make sense

We are in a rolling economic crisis right now, subject to the vagaries of the advance or retreat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is an ever-changing scenario with stark winners and losers. The economy contracted at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline in the 70 plus years of GDP tracking. After several weeks of improvement, jobless claims for first-time unemployment benefits rose for the second week in a row. 17 million Americans are now collecting unemployment benefits. So far, the markets have been betting on COVID’s retreat and global economic recovery with big tech leading the way. How to handle these extremes as investors? As we have so many times in the past, on this week’s WEALTHTRACK we are calling upon a veteran investor to give us perspective and investment advice.  https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3ONLK1lo5WTgjA5c3hAGHAt We’ll hear from great investor Hersh Cohen, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Clearbridge Investments. With more th

Safe haven investments are hard to find these days, which is why we need them more than ever. We are faced with risks we haven’t experienced in living memory. A truly global and spreading pandemic, rolling government lockdowns, unprecedented involvement in securities markets by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and massive stimulus from governments with payments to individuals and businesses. Normally when corporate and government debt soars to record levels bond markets get nervous, bond prices fall and interest rates rise as investors worry about getting paid back. Not in today's environment. The Fed has essentially pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero and backstop numerous types of loans to prevent businesses from going bust and laying off workers. That assurance and the “don’t fight the Fed” adage seem to be enough for most fixed-income investors who continue to chase yield, driving bond prices up and interest rates down. Not this week’s guest. Tom Atteberry is a Portfolio Manage

There are a few moments in one’s lifetime when the geopolitical and economic backdrop truly changes. COVID-19 and its aftermath are one of those moments. I call it “The Pandemic Pivot”. The combined shocks of a highly contagious and in some cases deadly virus, global economic shutdown, rising populism, and global unrest are upending the old world order and introducing new disruptive dynamics yet to be fully realized. In the meantime each of us has to live our lives, do our work and plan and invest for the future as best we can. This week’s guest is one of them.  He is Matthew McLennan, a noted global manager, Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management Long before this crisis McLennan has been talking about emerging global geopolitical and financial risks. He says the pandemic has exposed a number of vulnerabilities that we will discuss, as well as how he is managing through them. One particularly interesting aspect of his strategy is a renewed emphasis on gold as a long term subst

Part Two: We are living in extraordinary times. We are calling it the Pandemic Pivot: the changes that have occurred or accelerated because of COVID-19 and the dramatic response to it, from economic shutdown to massive life support.  The stock market performance has been largely driven by a small group of well-known mega-cap tech stocks which explains the NASDAQ and S&P 500’s stellar performance and the lagging broader markets. Apple, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook make up 40% of the NASDAQ’s market capitalization and 20% of the S&P 500’s.   Is the stunning rally off of the recent March lows durable? Are stock prices running on anything other than Fed fumes?  Yes, says legendary value investor Bill Miller! He will explain why he joins us for the second of our two-part interview with him.   WEALTHTRACK Episode #1702 originally broadcast on July 10, 2020   More info: https://wealthtrack.com/all-the-reasons-to-be-bullish-with-legendary-value-invest

We are marking the start of this season with the introduction of a new series. What we are calling the “Pandemic Pivot” - the rapid economic, market, and geopolitical shifts we are experiencing during the global health crisis. Through lockdowns and re-openings, the changes have been dramatic and swift. The huge, largely government-induced shutdown of global commerce ended the record-breaking economic recovery and the bull market in the U.S. The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in response led to the shortest bear market in history and what could turn out to be the briefest recession ever - the jury is still out on this. To make sense of these changes, we are turning to a great investor Bill Miller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Miller Value Partners. This week, in the first of a two-part interview, Miller and I discuss how the world has and has not changed since the pandemic struck. WEALTHTRACK Episode #1701 broadcast on July 03, 2020 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/a-rare-in-depth-interview-

One of the striking financial characteristics of this pandemic stricken world has been the extreme divergence between the sickening economic reality on the ground and the out of this world exuberance in the stock market, which started long before now when businesses are slowly and sporadically being allowed to reopen. This week’s guest’s interpretation of the data is the polar opposite. He has widely followed economist, David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist and Strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates, Last week, in Part I of our interview, he told us the economy was already going into a recession when the pandemic hit, that it has dramatically deepened, and that unless there is a vaccine soon, which he doubts will happen, that the damage will be lasting. This week, in Part 2 of our interview with Rosenberg, he focuses on the markets. He says it is impossible to reconcile one of the highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression with the recent biggest 50-day post bear market rally in th

In the first of a two-part interview, Influential economist David Rosenberg explains why “nothing is normal” after the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a picture that Rosenberg has been painting ever since the pandemic hit. And well before that he was deeply concerned about the economy’s weakness and the stock market’s vulnerability. Dave Rosenberg is President, Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates which he launched early this year with the stated priority of “…providing investors with analysis and insights to help them make well-informed investment decisions.” He is known for his tell-it-like-it-is commentary, independence of thought, and high conviction calls which are frequently far out of the consensus. He will not disappoint in this interview as we discuss why “nothing is normal.” More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/influential-economist-david-rosenberg-warns-life-is-going-to-change-permanently-after-covid-19/ Churchill: Walking With Dest

The impact of past pandemics on the U.S. economy and markets has important lessons for today says financial historian Richard Sylla, as does the record growth in both monetary and fiscal stimulus. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-financial-impact-of-past-pandemics-has-important-lessons-for-today-says-historian-richard-sylla/ Reading List: “Pandemics and Epidemics: Financial and Economic Effects” : https://www.moaf.org/publications-collections/financial-history-magazine/133/_res/id=Attachments/index=0/Pandemics%20and%20Epidemics.pdf Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://amzn.to/3dzvrfh Alexander Hamilton: The Illustrated Biography:  https://amzn.to/3cwM7mh A History of Interest Rates: https://amzn.to/3dtnJ6e --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Central banks and governments around the world are pulling out all the stops to replace income lost from COVID-19 shutdowns, including as we have seen in the United States direct payments to individuals. We are devoting a WEALTHTRACK podcast this week to “Helicopter Money”, a concept coined by Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman who theorized that as a last resort in a deflationary depression the government could drop dollar bills from a helicopter for people to pick up and spend to “shock it out of a deep slump” with the “aim of boosting demand and inflation.” That theory has now become reality and our financial thought leader guest, Paul McCulley believes it signals a new era whose time has finally come. McCulley will discuss the far-reaching policy changes now occurring and why he believes many will become permanent. McCulley has been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning, starting when he was Senior Partner at PIMCO where he was Founding Member of its Investment Policy Committee, author of t

Can investing be simple? With the 20/20 vision of hindsight it sure looks that way.  Had investors just decided to stay in the U.S., invest in growth stocks, especially mega-cap tech stocks they would have hit the trifecta over the last decade or more. Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed that formula for success? It has not. If anything it seems to have accelerated and accentuated it. The extended FAANG family known by the acronym FAANGM for Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Microsoft recently comprised close to 24% of the total market cap of the S&P 500, topping what dot com stocks reached at the height of the tech bubble. Left in the dust by this juggernaut combination of U.S mega-cap tech are other stock market sectors including value stocks, small company stocks, and international markets, particularly emerging markets. It just so happens that those are the very areas that this week’s guest believes we should be focusing on now. He is financial thought leader, innovato

No doubt about it. The stream of economic news is terrible. The pandemic induced shutdown of much of the U.S. economy, Europe and other countries has resulted in stunning declines in employment, income, sales, earnings, government revenues, and overall economic output. This week’s guest has been following and cataloging all of the economic and policy developments since the beginning of the pandemic and joins us with a summary and update on what it means for the overall economy, businesses, consumers, and investors. We are delighted to welcome Ed Hyman back to WEALTHTRACK to share his current outlook with us. Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s Number One Economist for an unprecedented 39 years in Institutional Investor’s annual survey. No one else comes even close to that record. He is Vice Chairman of Evercore, a leading independent investment banking and advisory firm, and the Founder and Chairman of its Evercore ISI division where he leads its economic research team. For months now Hyman’s must-read daily r

How different will our world be as the nation slowly returns to work on a state by state, city by city, business by business basis? In part II of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert, the Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Chief Investment Strategist of leading macro research firm Strategas Research Partners he addresses the profound changes ahead. Trennert believes the COVID-19 experience and its economic aftermath will alter the behavior of countries, individuals, businesses, and investors for many years to come. He shares his assessment of the pandemic’s potential long-term winners and losers with us. If you missed his discussion last week, debating the merits of both the bullish and bearish case for the market and where he comes out. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1645 broadcast on May 08, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/covid-19-is-changing-economic-investment-behavior-in-profound-lasting-ways/ Leading investment strategist, Jason Trennert periodically sends out thoughtful and insightf

This week’s guest was concerned about high market valuations before the global pandemic hit and was recommending clients raise some cash.  It’s a call he and his team have reiterated since. He is Jason Trennert, Co-Founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners, Trennert and his team have been busier than ever assessing the macro effects of the pandemic shutdown including policy, the public, and private sectors of the economy and the markets. In a recent report to clients, Trennert laid out the main arguments in the bull vs. bear debate and where he and his team stand now.  As he put it, “In times of acute stress in the markets, I find myself doing less modeling and more thinking.” We asked him to share his investment thoughts. WEALTHTRACK #1644 broadcast on May 01, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-investment-strategist-jason-trennert-lays-out-the-bullish-vs-bearish-cases-mid-shutdown/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack

We are witnessing massive policy responses of historic proportions. The fiscal and monetary reaction to the COVID-19 shut down of economies around the world has been unprecedented in its size and speed. How effective will it be and who stands to benefit from the stimulus? Who is at most risk of being left behind? We have measured answers from a major player in resolving the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago.  John Lipsky, who was the First Deputy Managing Director at the IMF from 2006-2011 during the height of the crisis joins us with his in-depth analysis of the policy response then and now and perspective on current risks. He raises serious concerns about the economic health of southern Europe, Italy in particular and emerging market countries as well.  It’s a heads up for the international exposure of our portfolios. John Lipsky Former Acting Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies: - Distinguished Scholar at the Henry A.

When economies started shutting down in various parts of the world we all knew that the economic numbers would be bad. How could they not be? We are just now getting some measure of the initial damage in terms of unemployment, business activity, and earnings. For some longer-term perspective on the economic and financial damage we are experiencing and some investment guidance I reached out to a trusted source for some advice. Nick Sargen, now Senior Economic Advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, who has 50 years of experience as an international economist and global money manager. He is also the author of two timely books, Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets and Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets.  A student of financial crises, Nick’s thoughtful and knowledgeable assessment of the state of the economy and markets and his advice for investors is definitely worth hearing.  WEALTHTRACK #1642 published on April 17, 2020 More inf

Retirees and near-retirees have suffered a punch to the gut and their portfolios with the coronavirus induced shutdown of the economy and the massive and precipitous market decline. After a decade which resulted in longevity records being set by both the economic recovery and bull market this black swan event was a stunner which requires a reassessment and regrouping of life plans, particularly for seniors.   The most important actions we can take are to have a plan to protect what we have, live within our means and limit the drawdowns from already battered portfolios. How do we find the right financial advisor to help us do that? That is one of the questions we will answer in this week’s WEALTHTRACK.   One lesson we learned from the last financial crisis and recession was panic selling resulted in permanent losses. Investors who kept their targeted stock allocation benefitted from the eventual market recovery.   Another lesson learned was the value of Social Security. No matter what happens in