Wealthtrack

50 years ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon shocked the financial world by ending the convertibility of the dollar to gold, upending the monetary and currency exchange system that had been in place since 1944. This week Nick Sargen, author of Global Shocks, joins us to explain the consequences of that momentous decision which are still being felt today. WEALTHTRACK #1807 published on August 13, 2021. More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/multiple-asset-bubbles-50-years-off-the-gold-standard/ Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets: https://amzn.to/3AGasT3 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Part 1 of 2 Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway is considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time. He has become an American icon dispensing investment wisdom and commentary over the years through his annual shareholder letters and meetings where he and his long-time business partner Charlie Munger answer questions for hours on end about a wide range of topics. An industry has developed around Buffett of investment clubs, newsletters, and books mostly focused on his investment decisions.  However, there is another side to Buffett which has been deeply studied and researched by this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest... Buffett as a business manager worth emulating.  We’ll be joined by Lawrence Cunningham, whose official title is a Professor of Law at George Washington University, but over the years he has become an acknowledged authority on corporate governance, corporate culture, and corporate law. He teaches business-related courses that span these fields.  Cunningham has aut

Part 2 of 2 What does history have to teach us about the current geopolitical, economic, and investment environment?  A great deal according to renowned historian Niall Ferguson.    His thesis is that applying the lessons of history to contemporary events can result in better investment outcomes.  One of the biggest, most consequential debates among economists, investors, and policymakers is over inflation. Is the recent global surge in prices a temporary blip from economies reopening from pandemic shutdowns, or is it a more lasting development with serious consequences? In this week’s program we pick up on that point - I asked Ferguson about the opposite view, that the pandemic shock and burden of record amounts of debt could actually impede growth and be disinflationary.  Ferguson shares his views on this, along with his thoughts on China, cryptocurrencies, and the new world of decentralized finance. WEALTHTRACK # 1804 broadcast on July 23, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/r

If there is one adjective we have heard repeatedly in the last year and a half it is “unprecedented”. It has been applied to describe the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been poured into the economy. It has been used in relation to the pandemic lockdowns and reopenings, and the record-breaking runs in stock, bonds, real estate, and commodity markets. Is there no historical precedent for these events?  Who better to ask than this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Niall Ferguson? Ferguson has studied booms, busts, the rise and fall of empires, the power of social networks, and catastrophes of all sorts including plagues and pandemics?     He is one of the world's leading historians and an influential commentator on contemporary politics and economics. Ferguson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, along with being the author of numerous articles, and a regular columnist for Bloomberg

Part 2 of 2 When legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham turned 80 he made two resolutions: “to be prepared to write a cheque up to the limits of your ability”, and to “say what you think you should say to everybody”.  He is following through on both commitments. He is saying what he thinks he should say to everybody including us, to our benefit!  In the first of our two-part interview last week, Grantham warned we are in a bubble of “epic proportions” in the U.S. stock markets, bond market, and global real estate and commodity markets.  In this week’s show,  Grantham shares his views on climate change, why he calls it the “Race of Our Lives” and how he is investing to combat it.   WEALTHTRACK #1802 broadcast on 07-09-21 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/jeremy-grantham-shares-his-views-on-climate-change-why-he-calls-it-the-race-of-our-lives/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Part 1 od 2 We are celebrating the launch of WEALTHTRACK’s 18th season on public television this week! We feel so fortunate to serve you. When WEALTHTRACK launched in July of 2005 our mission was to help our audience and ourselves build financial security to last a lifetime through disciplined, long-term, diversified investing. We vowed to seek out the best minds in the financial business to guide us. This week’s guest is unquestionably one of them. We’ll be joined by legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, Co-Founder of the global investment management firm, GMO, Grantham is known for his prescient calls about market extremes and game-changing turning points. I will add that being far out of consensus is never popular. He saw the tech stock bubble inflating in 1997, three years before it actually burst. It was an early call that cost GMO half of their asset allocation book of business at the time. In the late 2000’s he warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble and came close to calling t

For financial historians and serious market observers, the current era has all the signs of a developing market bubble.  Money is abundant, a wide range of financial assets have risen to record or near-record levels, and enormous amounts of money are flowing into stocks. Private equity funds are flourishing and bonds continue to attract huge sums.   Demand for residential real estate is soaring as are home prices. And despite recent dramatic declines, innovative products such as digital currencies have appreciated at breathtaking speed. Speculative trading by individual investors has also increased as a new growing community of online traders has emerged as a potent market-moving force.  The combination of all of these forces caused me to reach out to this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest.  We’ll be joined by Jason Zweig, a leading financial journalist who since 2008 has written the widely read The Intelligent Investor column for The Wall Street Journal. Zweig will share his analysis of the curr

How strong and lasting is the current rebound we are seeing in the economy? What about the resurgence in inflation? Those are major debates raging on Wall Street right now.   This week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is looking beyond the current rebound and focusing on what he sees as massive problems which will act as drags on recovery.  Robert Kessler, Founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. treasuries. Even before COVID, Kessler has been warning about economic and stock market risk.   On the program this week, he will discuss why he believes those risks have been exacerbated and the market is in a danger zone.   WEALTHTRACK #1751 broadcast June 18, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/exclusive-with-robert-kessler-on-why-100-years-of-stock-market-history-are-signaling-danger/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

The consensus for the economy is bullish. After a 6.4% annualized increase in real GDP, that’s without inflation, in the first quarter, recent forecasts are for 10% GDP growth in the second quarter, 7.5% in the 3rd, and 5% in the fourth.  As for inflation expectations, they are up. Again the consensus is that the combination of a rapidly rebounding economy, supply shortages, and tight labor market will lead to a sustained rise in prices.  The most prominent skeptic on that front is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials who believe the price increases we are seeing now are transitory.  This week’s guest, influential economist Dave Rosenberg is in the Powell camp on this one and believes the recent jump in inflation is temporary and that the overall bullishness on the economy and markets is wrong and will be challenged before the year ends.  Dave Rosenberg is the outspoken and often contrarian Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm

Times they are a-changin'…  With COVID vaccinations becoming widespread, savings rates high, and consumers ready to spend, the economy is reopening and rebounding with gusto.  All of these developments are creating new opportunities and challenges for bond investors.  Bond prices fall when interest rates rise and vice versa. After a 40-year bull market in bonds, with interest rates declining to record lows, has the bottom finally been reached after many false starts? How real is this uptick in rates and what does it mean for bond investors?  Our guest on WEALTHTRACK this week is Mary Ellen Stanek, Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors, and President of the Baird Funds, where she heads up the Fixed Income Team overseeing $91 billion dollars worth of bond investments.  Stanek discusses the rapidly changing conditions and her team's all-weather bond strategy in what she calls uncharted waters. WEALTHTRACK Episode #1747 broadcast on May 21, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/new

“Jack be nimble Jack be quick” isn't a concept one usually associates with long-term value investors but sometimes extraordinary times call for exceptional responses. The first quarter of 2020 was one such event for this week’s guest.  Steven Romick, who has appeared on WEALTHTRACK since our launch in 2005 rarely does television interviews which is one of the many reasons we are delighted to have him with us this week. For those of you not familiar with him, he is Co-Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund which he founded in 1993 and ran for many years before bringing on his current team. Since its inception this go anywhere, invest in anything balanced fund has delivered better than 10% annualized returns besting the stock market and its balanced portfolio benchmarks by substantial margins.  WEALTHTRACK #1746 broadcast on  May 14, 2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/great-investor-steven-romick-loaded-up-on-unloved-stocks-during-2020-sell-off-whats-his-plan-now/ --- Support this po

There is a rule of thumb on Wall Street that when a fund knocks it out of the park in any given year or has an exceptional winning streak for a couple of years it is bound to fall to earth sooner rather than later and lag the market, its peers, or both for several years. It's called reversion to the mean. With few exceptions, this week’s guest has been in the winning streak category for a while. He is Michael Lippert, Head of Technology Research at Baron Capital and portfolio manager of the firm’s high-growth stock oriented Baron Opportunity Fund Morningstar’s one caveat about the fund’s performance has been its volatility, as it focuses entirely on companies with high rates of growth, not on the mitigating effects of returning capital to shareholders with stock buybacks or dividends. Volatility is a topic Lippert tackled in-depth in a recent quarterly letter to fund shareholders. I ask him to share his views with us. WEALTHTRACK #1745 broadcast on May 07,2021 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/?p=22536 “The

The shift from COVID lockdown to COVID reopening has been stunning. Depending upon the stage of reopening economies around the world are rebounding. The markets’ response has been swift and dramatic particularly in the U.S. So what do you do if you are running a highly concentrated, large-cap growth fund? That is the challenge facing this week’s guest. Damon Ficklin is head of the Large Company Growth team at Polen Capital. In his first appearance on WEALTHTRACK I will begin with the basics. I will ask him to describe Polen’s high conviction, the low turnover strategy of focusing on the highest quality growth companies with margins of safety.  What does that actually mean? WEALTHTRACK #1544 broadcast on April 30, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/focusing-on-highest-quality-growth-companies-with-margins-of-safety-pays-off-at-polen-capital-2/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Beware the headline makers! According to Wall Street lore when a financial asset hits the front pages it can signal a turning point, either a recovery if negative, or a fall if positive. What’s making headlines today? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-related investments, including dogecoin, a meme-inspired cryptocurrency created as a joke in 2013. “This is absurd,” said Billy Markus, the co-creator of dogecoin. “I haven’t seen anything like it. It’s one of those things that once it starts going up, it might keep going up.”  Dogecoin however is not the real story. Bitcoin, the world’s first and largest digital currency is, as well as Ethereum, the second largest and the blockchain networks they support.  And there are other players emerging. Coinbase Global Inc, the largest market exchange for digital currencies went public on the Nasdaq this week and its $85 billion market value easily surpassed that of the Nasdaq itself and ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.  The cryptocur

Have you noticed how rampant speculation is? Random investors seem to be making money hand over fist in numerous assets: disruptive companies like Tesla, whose stock has soared 600% in the last 12 months. Old economy stocks like video retailer GameStop up nearly 6,000% propelled by traders on commission-free trading platforms like Robinhood.  These are not isolated events. The zeitgeist is becoming very bullish. Do you feel like you are missing out? Has the world moved on?  No, it has not according to this week’s guest. In part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Richard Bernstein he makes a compelling case for long-term fundamental investing.  Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. Rich has also been a regular since WEALTHTRACK’s launch in 2005.  We’ve weathered our share of booms and busts over the years. He will discuss some time-tested strategies to invest successfully through both conditions.    WEALTHTRACK #174

We have been living through an extraordinary period. It was a year ago that COVID was recognized as a global pandemic and since then over 100 million people have been stricken and more than 2 million have died.  Economies were locked down causing severe recessions. Central banks and governments responded with unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. A worldwide effort by pharmaceutical companies to develop effective vaccines did so in record time. Millions are now in the process of being vaccinated. Global economies are now recovering with China and the U.S. recovering at a rapid pace.  Is the worst behind us? Are world economies and markets on a sustained path of recovery as many believe or are there serious hidden risks?  Risks are the concern of this week’s guest whose top priority as a money manager is capital preservation. He is Matthew McLennan, Head of the Global Value team at First Eagle Investment Managemen. Long before the pandemic, McLennan had been monitoring emerg

When a fringe economic theory goes mainstream and is actually implemented by policymakers you better pay attention. The once-fringe theory in question is called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.  The assumption behind MMT is that massive government spending helps the economy grow to its full potential, including full employment, and also finance major programs like universal healthcare, free college tuition, and green energy initiatives. Sound familiar?  What about the burgeoning federal debt? Not an issue according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In an interview on National Public Radio this week Powell   said: “Given the low level of interest rates, there’s no issue about the United States being able to service its debt at this time or in the foreseeable future.”  Enter today’s guest, Paul McCulley, who wrote an academic paperback in 2013 titled: “Helicopter Money, Or How I Stopped Worrying and Love Fiscal-Monetary Cooperation.”    McCulley is curren

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that 2021 is a year of significant political and macroeconomic change. Meanwhile, the rollout of COVID vaccines is starting to unleash a year’s worth of pent-up consumer and business demand.  That demand is also putting upward pressure on prices and inflation expectations. Those pressures are showing up in the bond market where yields on long-term bonds, the most sensitive to rising inflation expectations are rising. The price of 30-year Treasurys has fallen 15.6% in just three months.  This is a huge change and could signal the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds that many Wall Street pros have been predicting for years. Perhaps they will now be proven right.  This week’s guest has been telling clients that inflation will probably be higher than many believe, that a significant cyclical recovery is in the works and is bringing with it a major change in market leadership.    He is a noted investment strategist known for his macro an

Part 2 of 2 John Rekenthaler has been tracking mutual funds at Morningstar since 1988.  He correctly predicted early on that index funds would surpass actively managed funds. Now he sees a similar trend for ETFs as they attract record amounts of cash and mutual funds suffer outflows.  WEALTHTRACK #1737 published on March 11, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/morningstars-john-rekenthaler-explains-why-etfs-will-surpass-mutual-funds-as-the-industry-standard/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

John Rekenthaler, Vice President of Research at Morningstar and author of the twice-weekly “Rekenthaler Report” analyzes the influence of the online investment communities that have driven GameStop’s meteoric rise and stunning declines. Rekenthaler says their influence is here to stay, at least until regulators get involved.  WEALTHTRACK #1736 published on March 05, 2021 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-manipulation-of-stocks-by-social-media-investors-is-the-focus-of-morningstars-john-rekenthaler/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support