L2 Capital

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Bill Fleckenstein, an investment manager with over 30 years of experience in the financial market. Bill shares his comments, market insights and investment ideas on the website fleckensteincapital.com.br. Bill begins by discussing the magnitude of the attack on Saudi Arabia may have on markets depending on the actions taken in response to the incident and ponders about risk premiums and how agents have reacted to geopolitical tensions recently. Fleckenstein then talks about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in the financial markets and the role that central banks, trading algorithms and passive investment vehicles play in this context, all from a historical and economic perspective, elucidating situations of distortion in asset prices. On the possibility of a crash, Bill comments on Fed interventions, the impact of monetary policy on the market and what may be the catalyst for a strong correction, as well as aspects of the current scenario that are un

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a listed company on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on uranium mining and development in Namibia. Brandon, who has participated in L2 Capital Podcasts #05 and #14, served on two working groups at the 2019 WNA (World Nuclear Association), Demand (as Chair) and Uranium Supply and Secondary Supply. Munro starts discussing the impact that this weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabia could have on the energy market, particularly in relation to uranium and nuclear power as alternatives. He analyses the situation with short and long-term considerations, highlights the potential effects on investors and equity traders, and ponders the repercussions that these attacks could have on Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer and also an oil producer, and the local currency, the Tenge. Brandon then comments on the relevance of the WNA Symposium, held this year on September 11th/12th in London, for the industry and the releas

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Professor Gerry Thomas, a famous pharmacologist with a PhD in Pathology. She is a professor of nuclear pathology at Imperial College in London and an active researcher in the field of molecular pathology of cancer. Professor Thomas, who was at first against nuclear power but changed her mind as her research went on, debunks some myths and untruths that revolve around the subject. The professor begins by discussing the reasons why people fear nuclear radiation too much, including psychological, historical and contextual aspects. Then she talks about the health risks that different radiation doses can pose and how we expose ourselves to it. Professor Gerry Thomas ponders how lifestyle and longevity have led to increased cancer occurrences and how these factors relate to the disease compared to radiation exposure. The Chernobyl accident, in vogue now due to the production of an HBO series, is discussed in detail by the professor, who studied the subject thoroughly and

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Adam Rozencwajg, founding partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, an investment firm linked to natural resources such as mining, energy and agriculture. Prior to founding G&R’s, the partners were responsible for $ 5 billion of AUM at Chilton Investment Company. Adam talks about the investment process and how they look for opportunities in the commodities sector, with a value investing approach, meaning that they look for commodities that currently have depressed prices at the same time that present a strong possibility of course reversion and price appreciation.  Adam Rozencwajg analyses the relationship between the price of commodities as a whole and the price of the financial markets today and makes a retrospective of the past, showing that at times, when this relationship was that insane, great returns followed. The first commodity that Adam talks about is oil. He highlights a historical difference between the per capita GDP and a country's oil consumptio

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Vimal Gor, head of Fixed Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, an independent Australian asset manager with about US$100 billion in AUM, half of which is managed in Australia and the other half in England through the subsidiary JO Hambro Capital Management. Pendal is a listed company under the ticker PDL, in Australia. Vimal and his team are responsible for managing US$20 billion, allocated across different asset classes. Vimal Gor talks about a very important and unique subject, which he named “illusion of liquidity”. He started by explaining what he means by this and then describes the pockets of illiquidity in different markets. Vimal used a recent example to illustrate his point. He then explains this illiquidity issue considering the environment of strong monetary stimuli initiated during the 2007-2008 economic crisis. Gor gives his insights into the flattening of the US yield curve, with an explanation of the dynamics that are responsible for its m

In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources, a company focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines in Namibia. Brandon was our L2 Capital Podcast episode 5 guest, where he talked about the dynamics of the uranium sector and his views about it. In today’s special episode, the conversation focuses on the recently announced White House decision on a Section232 petition filed by two US uranium miners, Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels, in January 2018. The two companies asked for a 25% market share as the imports of uranium, in their view, possessed a threat to national security.  In addition to being at the forefront of a uranium mining company, Munro is an experienced lawyer and has extensive relationships with everyone in the industry, which makes his opinion and vision about the implications of the decision very interesting and worthy of attention. The Trump administration has decided not to impose quotas on the country's utilities, but has been sympath

In today's episode, Marcelo talked to Fred Hickey, editor of the famous publication The High Tech Strategis (HTS). The HTS is a monthly publication with more than 32 years of existence that brings to its readers an independent view on macroeconomic aspects, investments in the technology and precious metals sector. Fred explains that he began following and writing about precious metals in the early 2000s, as he believed it was necessary to protect oneself against financial measures taken by central banks. Fred Hickey brings his insight on technology companies and stresses that he is seeing a new bubble. In particular, he comments on the case of Huawei and the possibility of it being banned from doing business in the US. In the macroeconomic arena, he discusses the possibility of a global economic downturn and recession, bringing various metrics, indicators and examples to support his views. Fred talks about how the central bank's action has led to a poor allocation of investments worldwide and the conseque

In today's episode, Marcelo spoke with Bill Sheriff, chairman of enCore Energy Corp., a uranium exploration company with mining assets exclusively in the USA. Sheriff, who has worked as a geologist, a broker and a market maker, begins by talking about the history of Energy Metals, a company he founded with a market capitalization of US$1 million and sold a few years later for US$1.5 billion. Bill Sheriff talks about the importance of having a properly qualified team at the helm of a uranium company, with technical expertise in the entire nuclear fuel cycle and presents the credentials of the enCore team. Sheriff highlights the advantages of operating in the US, mainly in a historical context of the country as a consumer and producer of the raw material for the generation of nuclear energy. When asked by Marcelo López about the expectations regarding the petition filed by his competitors under section 232, requesting market reserve for local uranium producers, Bill Sheriff comments on his vision and that of th

In today's episode, Marcelo spoke with Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments, a Florida-based company that provides portfolio management services to institutions with a focus on risk management. Jeffrey Snider is one of the few people to openly and consistently talk about the Eurodollar System and he spoke to Marcelo extensively about the subject in this episode. Jeff begins by explaining exactly what the Eurodollar system is. It originated through US currency deposits outside the US and outside the US’s regulation, but evolved to become a large, interconnected global network with an enormous volume of transactions. It has been key to financial dynamics for some decades now. Asked about how the system really works, Jeffrey Snider sets an example to clarify the mechanics behind it and the effects on the economy and the financial markets in general, noting that the opacity of the system justifies the “shadow currency” nickname. Speaking about the financial crisis of 2007-200

In this special episode Marcelo López shares his insights on the uranium investment thesis. It has been recorded in Portuguese. Please share it with your Portuguese-speaking friends. - No episódio especial de hoje, invertemos os papéis. Marcelo López ocupou o lugar de convidado num bate-papo com Rafael Siqueira sobre a oportunidade de investimento em urânio. Quer entender por que a L2 Capital acredita tanto na tese de investimento em urânio? Compartilhamos com você de forma clara e abrangente as conclusões das análises dessa oportunidade que está fora do radar dos investidores. Marcelo conta sobre sua trajetória no mercado financeiro, sua experiência como hedge fund manager em Londres, como se deparou com essa tese e o que o motivou a ir mais a fundo para entender as peculiaridades do setor. Após viajar por diversos países, dedicar muito tempo e recursos, e conversar com todos os players do setor, como executivos de mineradoras, de usinas nucleares (utilities) e de enriquecedores, geólogos e analistas, Marcel

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Alex Molyneux, a senior executive and investor in natural resources, who today acts as an advisor to an investment fund solely focused on capturing opportunities in the uranium market. Having already held various executive positions in companies in the sector, as he himself explains, he is able to have a deeper technical understanding of uranium particularities, such as operational issues, production, licensing and jurisdiction, which gives him a different approach when investing. Alex Molyneux curriculum gives him credibility to talk about uranium. After a decade working as a specialist mining investment banker at large banks in locations such as Melbourne, Beijing, London and Hong Kong, he took up executive positions in publicly traded mining companies, founded a uranium mining company, Azarga Uranium, and held the position of CEO of Paladin Energy during its restructuring phase. Asked about what he considers important in the pursuit of investment objectives in t

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Simon Mikhailovich, co-founder and manager of the Tocqueville Bullion Reserve, which he describes as a global solution for those who wish to have gold and make use of a complete infrastructure with fiduciary responsibility and alignment of interests, allowing the purchase directly from the refiners. At the beginning of the conversation, Simon draws a distinction between having gold as a form of investment and having it as a safe haven. For both cases, he highlights how to position and the incredible features of the yellow metal. Simon and Marcelo conduct an interesting discussion of gold price performance since the peak in 2011, and ponder the effects of asset inflation, central bank intervention, currencies, confidence and how the “insurance policy” works. Simon Mikhailovich makes a detailed analysis of the differences between the sentiment and behavior of Americans, Russians and Chinese in relation to the acquisition of gold, with a historical and political conte

In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the famous report Gloom Boom & Doom and a contrarian investor known for bold investment decisions in the past. Marcelo begins the conversation by asking about the behaviour of markets from December 2018 to the present. Marc Faber attributes the December declines and reaction seen in 2019 to a number of factors, including the Fed’s capitulation, Modern Monetary Theory and the flow of investor’s capital. He also brings his perspective to the stock market in 2019 and comments on the possibility of a crash. Following on, Marc discusses the monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks, about their recent decisions, asset bubble, Quantitative Easing (QE) and his expectation regarding the next steps that will be taken by the American central bank. He also talks about the economy in some European economies, in the US, in Japan and in China. Marc Faber comments on the possibility of a recession in the US and China, for which he m

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Alasdair Macleod, who besides being a very experienced investor, is the Head of Research at Goldmoney. Alasdair talks about Goldmoney acting as custodian for clients around the world who wish to store precious metals outside the banking system and also the interesting services it provides to its investors. When questioned about the recent market performance, marked by pronounced declines in late 2018 and a bullish reaction in January 2019, Macleod explains these events and establishes a connection between decisions made by the Fed, the stage of the credit cycle and economic protectionism, in addition to giving his vision of what to expect for this year. He also draws a distinction between the credit cycle and the business cycle and highlights the factors that characterize the current cycle and uses recent data to give an opinion on the stage we are in today. Asked what the direction of central bank interest rates should be in the face of current circumstances,

In this episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Resources Limited, a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, ASX, focused on the exploration and development of uranium mines. Munro begins by telling a little about the company's history, as well as about his trajectory within the company, from the acquisition of the Etango Project in Namibia, various studies and licenses and the way the company handled the accident at Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011. Asked by Marcelo about the country where the company's activities are concentrated, Brandon explains with the knowledge of those who had lived there for several years, mentioning that Namibia contradicts the stereotype that the West has about the African continent. He highlights the characteristics that differentiate Namibia from other countries, emphasizing the quality of its road and port infrastructure, its political stability and the inheritance of German colonization. Next, Munro provides a detailed explanation of the

 In this episode, Marcelo talks to Martin North, from Digital Finance Analytics (DFA). DFA is a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm providing advisory services to clients in Australia and beyond.   Martin starts by explaining how his company, DFA, conducts the research and consulting work. DFA follows a philosophy of its own and looks at different perspectives, with a wealth of detail. Following on, North talks about the downward trajectory of real estate prices in Australia in 2018, which he had already anticipated, after several years of expressive appreciation. He explains why prices have risen so robustly over the last few decades and shares his point of view for the near future. Asked about credit expansion and the granting of real estate loans, Martin presents recent numbers and market trends and highlights the strong influence of investors, including foreigners, in this sector. He further clarifies how rising property prices have led to a change in household indebtedness and compo

In this episode, Marcelo talks to Russell Napier, co-founder of the ERIC (Electronic Research Interchange) and creator of the course "A Practical History of Financial Markets". He was also considered the No. 1 strategist in the 1990s and wrote the very famous book "Anatomy of the Bear." After talking about ERIC, which is a website for institutional investors to buy independent market research, Russell rationalizes about his recent Financial Times article "Cracks are opening in the global monetary system" which has caused controversy by stating that the current economic situation is not the end of a cycle, but something much greater. When Marcelo asks what will happen going forward, Russsell Napier talks about the global monetary system and how emerging markets should pay attention to the relationship between China and the United States, not only with regard to the trade dispute but also with regard to the exchange rate and the impact that this could have on the world. During the conversation, he also points o

The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise. In this episode, Marcelo speaks to the famous editor and founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, Jim Grant, who has been writing in this publication focused in the Capital Market since 1983 and has also written books, such as The Forgotten Depression. The conversation starts on the strong numbers coming from the Unites States: unemployment rates, the fiscal stimulus, and also the strong GDP, for instance. Questioned about the prospects on what is probably going to happen in 2019, Jim Grant says he believes the essential narrative today is about the growth of interest rates and its consequences. He talks about what the current FED policies and what they have wrought: great distortions and the pricing of assets. Looking back on what the FED did in the years of 2007 to 2009, Jim Grant highlights the need to do its best to raise the

The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise. In this first episode, Marcelo had the pleasure to talk to legendary investor Rick Rule, CEO at Sprott, Canadian company that works as a global investment and asset management focused in natural resources and precious metals. The first discussion with Rick Rule is about the uranium bull market, after a long period of bear market, when the metal was being sold for half the price of its production cost. The investor describes the rising process of the uranium rise in the market, highlighting the astonishing numbers that show it, until the disaster in Fukushima, which decreased the prices and the booming market, but also created the situation that led to the bull market in uranium market today. Rick Rule compares the situation in the present with the one we had 15 years ago, and answers a question about the mining stocks that didn't go