Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Old, yes. Backward looking, by its nature, but not irrelevant. We’re tipped to grow around 0.3%-0.4% for Q4 2025. It would mark, barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita growth on the trot.  That means average income and standard of living was ticking up on a per person basis, albeit from a low base. This is important because it tells you we're on the move. We're fighting back against the recession. Some say the number is now irrelevant because of the war and oil supply, but there are reasons to be optimistic. We’re looking at alternative supplies. Our current stocks are described as stable. The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates where they are in three weeks.  And there’s a fork in the road, if inflation bumps, there’ll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can still grow at a clip under 3% if two things happen: 1. We don’t panic buy and self-fulfil a fuel shortage2. We learn lessons from Liberation Day. Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed. T

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative.  Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed.  “It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.”  Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%.  But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%.  “Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and ass

China remains vital to our education sector, but the market is shifting.  A new NZ China Council report shows Chinese students make up about a third of revenue, spending nearly $60 thousand a year.  But it warns families are increasingly price-conscious and weighing up other countries.  Executive Director Alistair Crozier told Ryan Bridge New Zealand must keep visa processing world-class and offer more flexible study options.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025 Wednesday the 18th of March, Beef mince and Steak are driving the latest spike in food prices, BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones shares his thoughts.  Resource Minister Shane Jones is putting money into geothermal; Mercury Energy CEO Stew Hamilton tells Ryan how big of an impact this will have.  We’re in a global scramble for Chinese students and the stakes are high, New Zealand China Council Executive Director Alastair Crozier shares why.  Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits UK to agree a new defence partnership aimed at tackling cheap attack drone attacks and an English council bans any more memorial benches saying it's overwhelmed by them. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mercury Energy believes geothermal has a huge role to play in the future of the country's electricity industry. The Government's released a strategy on how to double the use of geothermal energy by 2040.  It's also ring fenced $50 million from the Regional Infrastructure Fund for the development of geothermal energy projects.  Mercury Chief Executive Stew Hamilton told Ryan Bridge the power just one of its geothermal sites produces is enough for around 150 thousand houses. He says it also produces clean, reliable energy 24 hours a day, no matter the weather or season. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hopes that whoever takes the reins at Fonterra can continue the current CEO's good work.   Miles Hurrell will leave the company in six months to ensure a smooth transition.   Federated Farmers Dairy Chair Karl Dean says the next CEO should continue Hurrell's approach to honest communication.   He told Ryan Bridge farmers have been told that a spade’s a spade, and that’s what needs to continue.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A view the Government's proposed changes to alcohol laws is a needed re-balance for licence-holders.  The Bill would only let people object to a premise's licence application, if they live or work in the same council area or live within one kilometre.   It also gives applicants a right of reply to objections.    Hospitality New Zealand Head of Advocacy told Ryan Bridge the current licensing process has led to some vexatious objections from those outside of the area.   He says applications aren’t often declined because of objections, but it does add unnecessary time and cost to the process.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war. It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent.  ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult.  He says other spikes in oil prices have led to higher inflation - but this will all depend on how long the conflict lasts.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 17th of March 2025, ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley talks the "worst case scenario" for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.  And Ryan explains why he agrees with Nicola Willis' call to not splash the cash in response to the Iran crisis.  Hospitality NZ want the government's liquor law changes to go further - they tell Ryan what exactly they want.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A 1pm presser and Covid‑style alert levels. This fuel price spike is bringing back bad memories from those dark days of lockdown. But a few facts help put things in perspective. There are a lot of scenarios and best guesses floating around, but the reality is we’re not yet short on fuel. That’s at least weeks away, we’re told. The economy is in recovery, and even the worst‑case scenarios still have us growing at a little under 3% — about half a percent off pre‑war predictions. The other big difference is the response. Interest rates, even if inflation hits the high 3s, aren’t expected to shoot up dramatically or immediately, because demand falls as people put less petrol in the Honda. If you live rurally, or don’t have a Grey Lynn tractor — a.k.a. a Tesla — the price of fuel will sting. But it won’t cause the sort of catastrophic, long‑term damage that lockdowns and Covid supply disruptions did.Nicola Willis, who fronted yesterday’s 1pm media event, made it pretty clear that excise cuts and other expensive re

In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump called on the UK, China, France, Japan, South Korea and others to send ships to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open - but his request has been met with little response.  Washington Bureau Chief for the Guardian, David Smith, told Ryan Bridge, "there's been some reporting suggesting that Donald Trump was warned this is a possibility by his military planners, and his response was it'll be okay." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 16th of March 2025, we get the latest on the Iran War as it enters its third week. Donald Trump has requested allies help open the Strait of Hormuz - UK Correspondent Gavin Grey tells Ryan whether Europe is likely to help.  Ryan has some advice for the Labour Party - don't automatically agree with the unions.  And Andrew Alderson celebrates Liam Lawson's brilliant weekend at the Chinese Grand Prix. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week ended with a bizarre situation where Labour effectively came out against a pay rise for teachers. They did this because that’s what the unions wanted. And what the unions want, the unions usually get. Union strategy 101 is getting everyone who’s not a member to become one. The tactic is peer pressure. If you can deprive non‑union members of a pay rise while dragging out pay negotiations, that’s leverage. Labour last week got rid of Willow‑Jean Prime, who scored an F in the portfolio. Ginny Anderson has been lumped with it at a time when National is seen, across a bunch of polls this term, to be either better or at least as good as Labour on education. Which is saying something. Like health, it’s usually the purview of the left. But something’s shifted, and Ginny probably needs to take a good, hard look at which battles she blindly follows her comrades into. Charter schools are another example. I was reading at the weekend about the breadth of subjects and students these schools cater to: seven Māori

Concerns the Middle East conflict will make rising grocery prices worse. The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index finds suppliers charged 2.3 percent more on average in February, compared to a year earlier. Annual average produce department costs rose 2.9 percent, the fastest in two years. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Ryan Bridge this doesn't capture rising fuel prices. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hamilton's welcoming the Homegrown Music Festival back to the city where it all began.  Organisers announced last year the festival would leave Wellington after being held on the capital's waterfront for 18 years.  Homegrown Chief Executive Andrew Tuck says Hamilton's Claudelands Oval will offer two-and-a-half times as much space, with acts like SIX60 and LAB set to take the stage.  He says the lineup for this year’s festival is the strongest they’ve ever put together.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An electrification advocate says the rising price and falling supply of gas may not be a bad thing in the long-term.  PwC research —commissioned by Gas Industry Co— has found New Zealand's gas market will need to shrink sharply as domestic supply declines.   It warns this could mean business closures, job losses, and higher energy costs.  Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey told Ryan Bridge it's going to be a tough transition, but we need to move away from gas anyway.  He says gas is an expensive and inefficient technology, especially in homes, and the more people get off it, the better it will be for them in the long run.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand is still a long way off from car-less days, AA fuel spokesman Terry Collins predicts.  Government ministers yesterday were receiving advice on emergency fuel measures that could be taken if fuel stocks got too low as a knock-on effect of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  But Collins told Ryan Bridge Early Edition the Petroleum Demand Restraint Act, which allows for carless days and other options like fuel rationing, is very old fashioned.  “In those days we didn't have things like working from home and all the types of IT that we do today that makes us maintain productivity in another way.”  New Zealand also has a fuel security plan which was updated last year. “We hope it never has to be implemented, but at least we've got a plan and we've got legislation that if it's needed, we can implement.”  There have been reports South Korea could ban exports of refined fuel products to ensure they had sufficient supply at home. That would have major impacts here as New Zeala

We're learning a few hard truths this week and the old saying rings true - you don't know what you've got 'til its gone. Parties on the left and the right all crying out for more oil. Turns out, it's actually still quite important. A decent supply of it at a stable price. And we're a long way off from that strait opening and running at full capacity again. Trump's talking victory. Winston told me this week the war will be over before people think. But there are sea mines and rocket launchers and drones hitting that strait. No shipping company, or insurer, is going near there for a while yet. The uprising we were told would happen hasn't happened. We've go the old boss' son in charge, and they've just killed his mum, dad and most of his family. He's not giving up anytime soon, is he? More important than oil is food. We've got the Wattie's plant closures. The frozen vegetables are grown here. Peas and beans. Like peaches before them, there'll be some cheaper imported alternative filling the shelv

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Friday 13th of March 2025, the Government could consider car-less days to help with fuel security, AA Fuel Spokesperson, Terry Collins shares his thoughts.  Homegrown Festival is back, but this time in Hamilton, Homegrown Festival Founder Andrew Tuck shares his thoughts.  According to a new report the Maui gas field could run dry by 2027, Rewiring Aotearoa CEO Mike Casey tells Ryan Bridge what impacts that could have on the energy sector.  Plus, UK Correspondent Vincent McAviney has the latest on Iran targeting the international financial district in Dubai with a drone and a British man has been charged under cyber-crime laws in Dubai after allegedly filming Iranian missiles over the city. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former All Blacks captain Tana Umaga is a contender to be named as one of Dave Rennie’s assistant coaches, possibly on defence.  The Moana Pasifika mentor would replace Tamati Ellison.  Newstalk ZB’s voice of rugby, Elliott Smith told Ryan Bridge it’s not really a surprise.   He says he’s got a strong connection to Rennie, having played under him for Wellington and the NPC going back 25 years.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.