Macro Horizons

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the November FOMC meeting and volatile market reaction to a dovish statement followed by messaging of a higher terminal rate. Other topics include market expectations for a pivot, monetary policy lags, and the narrowing window for a soft landing.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and whether or not the Fed can actually be credible about forward guidance for upcoming meetings and holding terminal after messaging back in May that 50 bp rate hikes should be on the table for the next few meetings and then actually raising rates by 75 bp at each meeting since then coupled with the huge revisions to the dot plot from June to September. The team discusses economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks and how these factors impact our outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 31st, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss how the events of the past week alter their views on credit into year-end and early next year. Topics include whether the Fed’s messaging last week constitutes a pivot, improving primary markets, and the likely path of market technicals into the end of the year.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 24th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their outlook for credit spreads into year-end and their expectations for the cycle peak in spreads. Topics include possible remedies to credit market illiquidity and the implications of a strong consumer on the likely path of Fed policy.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 17th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 11th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy debate the impact of heightened uncertainty and decreased liquidity on their outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange. The market continues to grapple with slowing economies in the US and abroad versus the Fed’s ability to maintain its unwavering resolve to contain inflation at any cost. Volatility remains front and center with daily swings in US rates of 20 bp or more becoming a regular market event.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 3rd, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent volatility in credit and swap spreads including their year-end targets for credit spreads. Other topics include whether swap spreads can continue to narrow from here, why credit had been so resilient until this week, and the impact of central bank intervention on credit and swap spreads.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 26th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways to the September FOMC meeting and what it means for credit. Topics include the evolution of the SEPs, how the possibility of a soft landing has changed, and the reaction in risk assets to the press conference.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 19th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the narrow trading band in credit spreads which has held despite volatility in financial markets broadly. Other topics include the outlook for fundamental creditworthiness, relatively light issuance thus far in September, and the impact of Tuesday’s CPI report on the odds the Fed can still achieve a soft landing.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 12th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy bring you their outlook for Treasury rates, the shape of the yield curve, IG credit spreads, Canadian rates, and foreign exchange as the Fed and other central banks continue tightening campaigns and the Fed’s QT reaches maximum SOMA portfolio runoff.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 5th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the upcoming September supply wave and what it likely means for high grade corporate and SSA markets. Other topics include the recent resilience in credit and whether the market is adequately priced to the macro outlook, the Fed’s Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI), and swap spread seasonality.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 29th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.