According To Sources

A quick summary before the weekend of why I believe ATHN is a long into the weekend, and why RBC and the market is misinterpreting the news.

In what I consider to be one of the best interviews thus far on According to Sources, Jason and I do a deep-dive into the situation between DVMT, VMW and Carl Icahn. What are the downside risks? Has Carl Icahn lost a step in recent years? What could a Rockwell Collins block from China mean for the entire merger-arb space? Does Dan Loeb stand ANY chance of winning the CPB board? We discuss these issues and much more.

What deal is most at risk from a market downturn? How does one handicap and source various deal approvals such as DOJ or MOFCOM and then gauge what each is worth for pending deals? In this week's podcast I give an update on the ongoing saga at Athenahealth (ATHN), weigh in on CA Inc., and answer the 7 questions on the minds of merger-arbs and deal speculators.

John Malone, Ron Burkle, Jana Partners, Tom Sandell: Each of these investors have either taken a stake or bid for Barnes & Noble (BKS). Now that company has finally turned the review process over to an independent committee, will this time be different? What is this company worth? Would Amazon be interested? I give my thoughts and later I interview Gabelli analyst John Tinker.

Tesla: Is Elon Musk settling with the SEC really an all-clear? Campbell Soup: As the stock continues to drift back to 2018 lows, the 2018 annual meeting has become an extremely binary event. Athenahealth: What does this mean for the Elliott brand? Papa John's: Will they be the next restaurant to go private? The top-5 biggest investing mistakes i make

On October 17th, marijuana goes fully legal in Canada. This event, combined with the Canopy Growth Corp investment made by Constellation Brands / Stories of Coca-Cola entering CBD beverages have made the cannabis space the most discussed sector in the past few weeks. What events will unfold over the upcoming months that will either continue to validate the sector OR perhaps send these sky-rocketing valuations back down to earth? I sat down with Navy Capital's Sean Stiefel to discuss. Navy was formed in 2014 as a fund specifically designed to participate in the upside from cannabis.

Athenahealth shares have tumbled following recent media coverage that strategics such as UNH and Cerner are walking away from the process. Perhaps Elliott buying ATHN isn't the best-case-scenario for investors, but it's still a scenario that is worth examining. Yum China plummeted to $30 last week after headlines that Hillhouse is ending its pursuit, but is the process truly over? CBS: Is it now in play?

In part II of my interview with Bloomberg M&A reporter Ed Hammond, we discuss how deals can get off the ground, and why so many times the process can die out midway through. In "Five Questions" I ask Ed "What's the biggest deal that's NEVER happened?" ..."Has anyone ever approached you with a bribe to reveal information?"...and "What's the most UNUSUAL way you've come across a scoop?"

The event space is littered on a daily business with rumors of deals and activism, the overwhelming majority of which is false. In Part 1 of what I consider to be a MUST-LISTEN interview, Bloomberg M&A reporter Ed Hammond explains the role journalists play in the deal-process. We discuss how incorrect journalism, for example the Nokia for Juniper story, makes it to press ONLY to be quickly refuted. And lastly we talk sources and their motivations, which can range from vanity, to humanity...to downright murky. But first I discuss how and why I've made Integrated Device Tech (IDTI) my biggest position of the year.

As it's Episode 12, it's time for a quarterly review. I examine the the Top 10 most intriguing situations in the world of deals, activism and merger arbitrage. Companies discussed include Yum China, Tribune, Mattel, Nielson & Arconic. Find me on twitter @accordtosources

In segment 1: I reveal my biggest holding, and what I believe to be the most intriguing deal situation on the board. Segment 2: Lehman Brothers. Allied Capital. Green Mountain Coffee. There was a moment in time where if David Einhorn shorted a stock, it was regarded as a possible death sentence for the shares. However, for both Einhorn and contemporary Bill Ackman, the last few years have proven to be difficult. In part II of my interview with Whitney Tilson, we discuss these two legendary hedge fund managers, and Whitney describes who he believes is the best hedge fund that no one's ever heard of .

How does a short idea from a hedge fund with only $100mm under management suddenly land on one of America's highest rated programs? The origins, details, risks and aftermath of perhaps this decade's greatest short: Lumber Liquidators. I sit down with Whitney Tilson to discuss the process, and talk a little Tesla.

Shares of Eli Lilly have exploded 14% since their announcment to spin-out its animal health division "Elanco". However, one of Elanco's divisons, Agri Stats, is at the heart of one of the largest class-action lawsuits in the country. If found guilty Elanco could face billions in damages. In this episode I interview Tim Ramey, analyst at Pivotal Research, who downgraded Tyson Foods in 2016 an lowered his price target from $100 to $40 after reading the accusations involving Agri Stats. Not only do we discuss TSN, but we look back at his time covering Herbalife, and his relationships with Bill Ackman, David Einhorn and Carl Icahn during that time period.

In this in-depth interview, Jason Varano, Executive Director at Nomura Securities who focuses on Special Situations / Risk-Arbitrage sits down to discuss NXPI/QCOM, AABA/BABA, DVMT/VMW, AKRX and a little CBS/VIAB (the interview was conducted July 26th, the day before the New Yorker article on Moonves) Time Cues: Open:  Why I'm short CBS 3:47:  NXPI/QCOM 16:47:  AABA/BABA 21:00 DVMT/VMW 27:00  AKRX 33:00 CBS/VIAB 35:00   5 QUESTIONS   

I sit down with Michael Batnick, author of "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments."   Some of Wall Street's greatest missteps are well documented:  Bill Ackman's attempt at activism in JC Penny, or Warren Buffet's go-around with Salomon Brothers are two famous examples.  However the great investors of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries ALL have their own investment blunders.  Some went on to thrive after, while others called it quits.  Michael Batnick and I spend 30 minutes analyzing these infamous lapses in judgement, INCLUDING Mark Twain's (yes the writer!) attempts at venture capitalism (yes he passed on an investment in Alexander Graham Bell's telephone)  

A recent change at the CMS (Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services) is going to revise the way medicare pays the HHA's (Home Health Agencies) starting in 2020.  One of healthcare's hottest subsectors has seen AMED rise 71% ytd, LHCG +40%, and EHC +38%.  However not all HHA's are created equal, and Spencer Pearlman of Veda Partners explains how EHC's revenue stream is MOST at risk.  

Hedge fund manager Michael Samuels of Broome Street Capital explores the latest deal situation at Synaptics (SYNA) and examines what the future could hold for Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) now that Irwin Simon is out.  Lastly an NXPI update and answers to some twitter questions. TWITER:  @accordtosources

This week on According to Sources, I analyze why the Kraft Foods for Campbell Soup story seems to be fairly weak.  I explain how a lesson from the past can be a guide for trading Education Realty Trust (EDR).  And in my interview with Joshua Goldberg, we do a deep dive into trading Disney / Comcast/ 21st Century Fox, and revisit NXPI/Qualcomm   tweet me @accordtosources

Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners joins According to Sources to discuss the important upcoming dates for clarity regarding ZTE sanctions.  She handicaps the odds for the Rubio/Schumer bill as it stands in the senate, and I give my take on trading NXPI   twitter:  @accordtosources email:  msamuels8@bloomberg.net

According to Sources devotes the entire episode to trading strategies ahead of AT&T/Time Warner ruling on June 12.  Questions such as "is AT&T a short on both outcomes?" and "where should foxa trade on win/loss?" will be addressed along with many others.  Hosted by Mike Samuels, portfolio manager of Broome Street Capital, an event-driven hedge fund focused on merger-arb and m&a.   This week's guest:  A california-based portfolio manager who oversees close to 900mm in aum.  He weighs in on TWX/T/DIS/CMCSA/FOXA