Podzept - With Deutsche Bank Research

One of the lead features in the latest Konzept edition concerns whether the Coronavirus will end up being deflationary or inflationary. We have Robin Winkler, FX Strategist in the red corner fighting for his deflationary views and Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist in the blue corner countering with his inflationary views. Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research moderates.

After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. The path beyond the Q2 contraction is, however, remarkably uncertain. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist, US explains.

Even with the best strikers in the world on your team, you wouldn’t play without a goalkeeper – so why run a risk asset portfolio without an effective defensive overlay? Caio Natividade, Head of QIS Research and Sorin Ionescu, Head of QIS Structuring explain.

The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights.

There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. In a world of international yield curve control and administered asset prices, what does that mean for FX?

We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, DBSI, provides his view on the latest US and global forecast, along with his insights on the monetary responses from the Federal Reserve.

Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. No brand has yet achieved real sustainability. Those brands that will be able to incorporate newness with sustainability are the likely winners.

There were few asset classes that saw quite the stratospheric growth in 2019 like the green bond market. How is 2020 shaping up? Craig Nicol, Credit Research Analyst, shares his insights.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations.

Marion Laboure, analyst in the Thematic Research team, discusses the 2020 Outlook in this latest Podzept episode. With some major downside risks to the global economy having been avoided, and market concerns over a possible recession diminishing Laboure believes that global growth will gain speed over the coming months and hit 3.3% this year, up from 3.1% in 2019.

Until now, cryptocurrencies have been additions, rather than substitutes, to the global inventory of money. Over the next decade, this may change. Overcoming regulatory hurdles will broaden their appeal and raise the potential to eventually replace cash.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Yi Xiong, China Economist, sets out how the Chinese economy has been driven by a key theme in each of the last two decades: exports and then public investment. The next decade is set to be the consumption decade. The latent spending potential, particularly in retiring Chinese will continue to drive growth.

The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit. Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, shares his insights.

Heating and cooling represents around half of all EU energy use and almost a quarter of all EU emissions. If European countries are serious about substantially reducing emissions, emissions from heating will need to be tackled. James Brand, Head of European Utilities Research, shares his insights.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities, shares key highlights from his Monthly Chart Book, which details some of the most important macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.