Podzept - With Deutsche Bank Research

Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on.

Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years. This gap, captured by persistently elevated inflation and a historically tight labour market, is likely to necessitate a more aggressive response from the Fed that ultimately leads to a recession by the end of next year.

Sameer Goel, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, discusses the impact of the war in Ukraine on Asian markets, including the complex trade relationships that have knock-on effects on the rest of the world.

With the Fed trying to achieve a soft landing for an economy weathering both high inflation and geopolitical upheaval, Deutsche Bank Research has adjusted its forecasts for rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, speaks with Matthew Barnard, Director of North American Equity Research, and details the numerous challenges facing the Fed as it attempts to delicately thread this policy needle.

In a new episode of the Podzept podcast Marion Laboure and Luke Templeman discuss the financial market implications of banning Russia from the SWIFT payment messaging system. Listen in to learn more about SWIFT, its history, previous bans and its alternatives.

James Brand, Head of European Utility Research discusses with Debbie Jones, Global Head of ESG Company Research the ambitious targets set by Germany's coalition government, arguably Europe's most ambitious decarbonisation targets. The targets aims to transform Germany's power market, reaching 80% renewable generation by 2030 while closing its remaining nuclear plants and phasing out coal. It could put Germany at the forefront of the energy transition.

Nicole DeBlase, lead analyst covering the US Multi-Industry and Machinery Research, speaks with Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, on the macro setup of the sector in 2022. Often said to be a bellwether for the economy, will Industrials be constructive or destructive in 2022 as the US begins to raise interest rates?

Tim Rokossa, Global Head of Automotive Research, and Luke Templeman, Thematic Analyst discuss the 2022 outlook for global automotive.

Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom.

In a new podcast our China Chief Economist Yi Xiong and Luke Templeman from our Thematic Research team discuss China's housing activity, which remains weak, and help to explain the implications for growth in China next year.

Many corporates have penciled in a strong rebound in earnings this year backed by forecasts of robust pent-up demand. Yet, so far there is little evidence of the spending surge that so many expect. Corporates are not wrong to anticipate hefty spending; all the right ingredients are there. Savings jumped due to government stimulus and a lack of spending options. So what’s happening then?

Liam Fitzpatrick, European Head of Metals and Mining Research interviews Anna Krutikov, Glencore's Head of Sustainability. Climate ambition is increasing rapidly at a global level and investors are demanding that large corporates, such as Glencore, align strategies with the goals of the Paris Agreement and take the necessary action on reducing emissions.

In this episode we discuss the corporate response to growing biodiversity concerns, which has been slow. The problem is that companies with higher biodiversity risks can find their stock prices underperform. Customer and political scrutiny are amplifying the situation.

We interview Daianna Karaian, Founder and CEO of Today Do This, a firm that works with Blue Chip global corporates to help them achieve specific sustainability goals. We address several big questions that corporates have about exactly how to implement sustainability processes.

We discuss the US economy, in particular what President Biden has done in his first 100 days in office, including the enormous fiscal stimulus package. Is the package politically possible as Washington looks forward to mid-term elections next year?

We discuss the key trends of digital currencies; which central banks are leading and lagging the race; the different sets of opportunities, or hurdles even, faced by different countries; and what to expect in terms of regulatory framework looking ahead. Katharina Paust-Bokrezion, Head of payments policy, Political Affairs, joins the conversation.

Being ‘asset-light’ has been Wall Street dogma for years. And no wonder. Over the last decade, US stocks with low levels of Property, Plant, and Equipment (PPE) have seen double the stock market returns of high PPE stocks. In Europe, the returns have been triple. But could it all come to an end?

A deep dive into what we are expecting from the Fed and why the market is pricing in a different path than the Fed's guidance.

A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve.

Listen to a podcast episode where we discuss the highlights from a recent ESG conference where sustainability leaders and asset managers discussed key ESG topics as part of focused panels and presentations.