The Sound Of Economics

**Bruegel fellows Reinhilde Veugelers and Simone Tagliapietra elaborate on the recent Policy Contribution they co-authored on the European automotive industry in the light of the global electric vehicle revolution.** Electrification is a key trend transforming the global automotive industry, especially in the light of increased decarbonisation efforts. The speed at which the technology is being developed and the decreasing production costs make for a rather optimistic prognosis for future global deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The automotive sector is undoubtedly an important one for the EU economy, yet it has lagged behind in terms of both EV manufacturing and deployment. In this episode of Deep Focus, Sean Gibson interviews Reinhilde Veugelers and Simone Tagliapietra, the co-authors of a recently published [Policy Contribution on the EU automotive industry and the global EV revolution](http://bruegel.org/2018/12/is-the-european-automotive-industry-ready-for-the-global-electric-vehicle-revolutio

**With 2018 drawing to a close, and the dawn of 2019 imminent, Bruegel's scholars reflect on the economic policy developments we can expect in the new year – one that brings with it the additional uncertainty of European elections.** These elections will be a bellwether for the continent-wide rise of populist politics that has been a defining characteristic of the year past. The results will certainly have profound consequences for all policy debates within the EU, but also for the bloc's relationship with external partners. The shifts in the geopolitical landscape have borne a trade war, prompting renewed talk of closer ties between China and the EU, the potential internationalisation of the euro, and how the multilateral trading system might be saved, reformed, or left behind. Meanwhile, 2019 promises fierce debate of the next EU budget for 2020-2027, not entirely separate from the mooted euro-area budget and the ongoing efforts at euro-area reform and expansion. The upcoming elections will be pivotal in

**Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas speaks about his review of systematic errors in ECB forecasting, in another instalment of the Deep Focus podcast on 'The Sound of Economics' channel** In this episode of the Deep Focus, Sean Gibson speaks with Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas about his research on European Central Bank forecasting. Zsolt has analysed that, over the past five years, ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted. Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation, and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB. You may also be interested in this blog post by Zsolt Darvas, which contains charts illustrating just how erroneous [the ECB's forecasting on inflation and unemployment](http://bruegel.org/20

**Bruegel fellow Georg Zachmann talks through a Bruegel Blueprint he has co-authored, looking into the potential distributional effects of climate policies, in another episode of the Deep Focus series.** Climate change is one of the big questions of this century, and mitigating its effects remains an enormous challenge. Decarbonisation will require a massive shift in our economies. Heating, transport, electricity and industry will have to transition to a world without fossil fuels. Agriculture and industry will have to find new ways to reduce emissions. This aim – as ambitious as it is essential – necessitates intrusive climate policies. In this episode of Deep Focus, Sean Gibson interviews Georg Zachmann, a co-author of a recently published [Blueprint on distributional effects of climate policies](http://bruegel.org/2018/11/distributional-effects-of-climate-policies/). They untangle the complicated picture of said effects, which may vary depending on the policy tool and its design, the sector addressed

In this episode of the Backstage series, Bruegel's Non-Resident Fellow Dirk Schoenmaker welcomes Molly Scott Cato, a Green party MEP for South West England, for a conversation on the EU's plan to transition towards sustainable finance. To achieve the EU's 2030 targets agreed in Paris, such as a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions, in May 2018, the Commission announced its action plan on sustainable finance. Its aims are, among others, to facilitate sustainable investment and improve the availability of information on investments carbon footprint.   Molly Scott-Cato in conversation with Dirk Schoenmaker outlines the details of the plan and elaborates on the steps necessary for the transition from brown to green finance, from vast investments into public infrastructure to the introduction of carbon tax on aviation.  While it is important to introduce dynamism to the discussion, we have to keep in mind to balance the sense of desperate urgency to avoid a systemic crisis. For further reading, you might cons

**Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff looks at north Africa's economic growth in the light of the region's trade agreements with the EU, welcoming Karim El Aynaoui and Uri Dadush to the Backstage series on 'The Sound of Economics'.** In this episode of Backstage, Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff welcomes Uri Dadush, a non-resident scholar at Bruegel and a Senior Fellow at the OCP Policy Center, as well as Karim El Aynaoui, managing director at the OCP Policy Center. Together, they look at north Africa's economic growth in the light of the region's trade agreements with the EU. This podcast episode touches upon a [Policy Contribution](http://bruegel.org/2018/11/assessing-the-european-unions-north-africa-trade-agreements/) co-authored by Uri Dadush, which provides an economic assessment of the EU-north Africa trade agreements. While their performance is not spectacular, the agreements' common view often appears too harsh, especially bearing in mind the unfavourable domestic and international environment in w

In this episode of the Director's cut, Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff hosts a conversation with Danièle Nouy, the first chair of the European Single Supervisory Mechanism. On the eve of the end of her mandate she traces the legacy of her five years and the prospects for the future of banking supervision in Europe.

In November 2008, the first G20 summit at the leaders' level took place amid the global financial crisis. The admittedly ambitious undertaking has since played its role in stabilising the global economy throughout the aftershocks of the crash. Today, the global order looks much different to the one in which the G20 found itself 10 years ago. How has the institution evolved and is it still equipped to create a supportive political environment for strong national and global actions? In this episode of Bruegel's Deep Focus series on 'The Sound of Economics', Suman Bery reviews the G20's performance over the past decade to identify the challenges for the future. After the initial success, he identifies a sense of complacency that has seemingly crept into the global forum. Moreover, the emerging and developing economy members have remained observably passive, which may reflect their discomfort at their perceived systemic importance despite lower levels of income. A further challenge for the G20 arises from Donal

This episode of the Director’s Cut features a conversation between Bruegel’s director, Guntram Wolff and Maha Yahya, the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings. Yahya is the author of numerous publications, including most recently “Unheard Voices: What Syrian Refugees Need to Return Home” (April 2018); “The Summer of Our Discontent: Sects and Citizens in Lebanon and Iraq” (June 2017); and “Refugees and the Making of an Arab Regional Disorder” (November 2015).  For further reading, we recommend our blueprint "[People on the move: migration and mobility in the European Union](http://bruegel.org/2018/01/people-on-the-move-migration-and-mobility-in-the-european-union/?utm_content=bufferf0023&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer+(bruegel))", written by Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Zsolt Darvas and Inês Goncalves Raposo. Zolt Darvas also contributed to the debate on migrat

Think-tanks play a critical role in developing and promoting policy solutions, particularly in times of extreme disruption and change. However, these organisations now operate in information-rich societies where facts, evidence and credible research are often ignored – and where disinformation can gain a footing. In this edition of the Bruegel Backstage podcast series on ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel secretary general Matt Dann welcomes senior thought leaders from research centres around the world, to discuss a range of strategies and best practices for transforming public policy and institutions in an era of digital and political disruptions as well as increased social and economic turbulence. Speakers **Matt Dann**, secretary general at Bruegel **James McGann**, director of the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania **Milena Lazarević**, programme director and co-founder of the European Policy Centre in Belgrade, Serbia **Edward Kofi Anan Brown

The final act of the Brexit negotiations is upon us, with many questions still seemingly unresolved and the future relationship between the EU and the UK yet uncertain. The EU remains unyielding on compromising the integrity of the single market, with the UK struggling to propose an agreement suitable both for the EU as well as its own nuanced internal political situation. With the numbers delicately balanced in the UK’s House of Commons, whose MPs have to ratify the final deal, the subtlest shifts in positions and proposals have the potential to constitute serious stumbling blocks on the road to an agreement. Joining Bruegel’s Maria Demertzis for this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’ is Robin Niblett, director of the Chatham House institute in London. Together they run through what has already been agreed, what sticking points remain to be got past, and how the two sides might yet reach a deal that suits them both. For further reading, we recommend our blog post, written by Maria Demert

**Bruegel senior fellow Nicolas Véron joins Sean Gibson to delve into the recent Policy Contribution on how to better the European Union anti-money laundering (AML) regime, a paper he has co-written with Joshua Kirschenbaum.** The study offers a response to the evident flaws of the present system, exemplified by a series of banking scandals in multiple European Union countries, and amplified by changing geopolitics. The shortcomings of the current legal framework are identified by the authors as systemic in nature – the combination of an enforceable single market and national supervision of banks fails to meet the AML objectives. In their analysis, the authors propose a new European AML authority that would work on the basis of deep relationships with national authorities such as financial intelligence units and law enforcement agencies. For further reading, you might consider [a blog post](http://bruegel.org/2018/05/completing-europes-banking-union-means-breaking-the-bank-sovereign-vicious-circle/) by Is

**Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas welcomes Sayuri Shirai, professor at Keio University, visiting scholar at the Asian Development Bank Institute and former Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), for a discussion of the Japanese monetary policy outlook.** Japan is often portrayed in the economic circles as a country facing decades of loss, as it has long been experiencing slow economic growth and sluggish underlying inflation, despite numerous attempts at boosting it. The ambitious plan designed to do just that is known as ‘Abenomics’, a macroeconomic package advocated by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, based upon the ‘three arrows’ of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. To evaluate the outcomes of the Abe’s policies and explore the challenges facing Japanese economy, Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas welcomes Sayuri Shirai, professor at Keio University, visiting scholar at the Asian Development bank institute and former Member of the Policy Board of the Ban

**Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, deputy prime minister of Singapore and chair of the G20 Eminent Persons Group, and Jean Pisani-Ferry, mercator senior fellow at Bruegel, for a conversation about the growth and stability challenges facing the global financial system, and how the system can be better equipped to deal with the significant and novel problems of the future.** In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’ Guntram Wolff is joined by Bruegel’s mercator senior fellow Jean Pisani-Ferry, and by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, deputy prime minister of Singapore and chair of the G20 Eminent Persons Group. [A report from the Eminent Persons Group](https://www.globalfinancialgovernance.org/) looks into how the global financial system can adapt to meet the sizeable challenges the future will pose, with particular reference to growth and financial stability. Small episodes of growth scarcity accumulate to make for a significant reduction worldwide, and the current mo

**Amid the Asia-Europe Economic Forum on the fringes of the 12th ASEM Summit, Bruegel senior fellow hosts a conversation on developing global trade relations, with guests Moonsung Kang, professor as Korea University, and Michael G. Plummer, director at SAIS Europe – Johns Hopkins University, for an episode of the Bruegel Backstage series on ‘The Sound of Economics’.** With Bruegel hosting the two-day Asia-Europe Economic Forum in the same week as the Asia-Europe Meeting takes place in Brussels, André Sapir takes the opportunity to talk about the quickening changes to the global trade landscape in conversation with Moonsung Kang, professor as Korea University, and Michael G. Plummer, director at SAIS Europe – Johns Hopkins University.  Led by President Donald Trump, the US has begun to challenge the multilateral trade system. Meanwhile, Europe has been busy securing free trade agreements – most recently with Japan, previously with Canada and others. With the US appearing to withdraw, and abdicate its leadin

**In this episode of Deep Focus, Bruegel research fellow Simone Tagliapeitra explains how the nature of cross-Mediterranean energy relations needs to change, not only in line with new climate-change targets but also to meet the burgeoning energy demand outside Europe.** Oil and gas dominated Euro-Mediterranean energy relations in the 20th century, but with the turn of the 21st century came a new focus on renewable sources. The new ventures were less successful than those of old, and both institutional and commercial plans failed to achieve the same level of fruitful cooperation. With electricity demand sky-rocketing in the Middle East, future efforts must differ from those of the past in providing much more supply for the countries outside Europe. The EU can play a key role in ensuring that both they and the countries on the southern side of the Mediterranean Sea benefit from such a spike in energy demand, with a strategy in-keeping with agreements already reached on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

**In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys to assess how the new Italian budget proposals measure up against the existing EU fiscal rules.** Italy’s new budget proposals, together with projected deficit levels for the coming years, have put the EU as well as bond-market investors on alert. In the context of Italy’s already-high ratio of public debt to GDP, the coalition government’s plan to increase the budget deficit has prompted concerns that the country risks running afoul of the EU’s fiscal framework.  What are the means by which the EU can monitor and, if need be, administer sanctions on Italy, in the event of any contravention of its fiscal rules? Bruegel director Guntram Wolff takes this opportunity to discuss all the options facing the European Commission and Council, as well as the specific details of the Italian case and the forecasts underpinning the budget’s figures, with Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys.  For furth

**Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir welcomes Tamotsu Nakamura, dean of Kobe University’s Graduate School of Economics, and Maria Åsenius, head of cabinet to European trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström, for a discussion of the EU-Japan economic partnership in the context of heightening global trade tensions.** The EU and Japan have signed a landmark trade deal this summer that will create the world’s largest open economic area. The economic partnership agreement will be the biggest bilateral trade agreement the EU has ever signed, permitting not only the dropping of tariffs but also regulatory cooperation, as well as a special focus to promote the interests of SMEs.    The trade-positive nature of this agreement goes against the grain of the numerous challenges made to the global multilateral system in recent times, best represented by the tariffs and counter-tariffs imposed by the US and China upon one another. To explore how this accord suits the EU and Japan, in terms of both the domestic and intern

**Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis welcomes Financial Times commentator Martin Sandbu to explore the journey taken by the field of economics since the financial crisis struck 10 years ago, and discusses what new tools economics has now that it didn’t have then.** In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, we trace the journey upon which the field of economics has embarked since the financial crisis, what lessons it has learnt and what it can do differently now with the benefit of hindsight. Economists and financial specialists failed to identify the burgeoning threat of financial imbalances, excessive risk-taking and housing bubbles that led to the crisis that first broke a decade ago. Can economics provide answers to the right questions – and in good time? Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis is joined by Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times to look at what new tools and approaches can help economists make a difference in the event that any similar such crisis strikes again. Fo

Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel affiliate fellow Silvia Merler to evaluate the Italian government’s planned budget for 2019, in this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’ Six months after its election, Italy’s coalition government reached an agreement on public spending. The key tenets of its first budget include a spending increase that will drive the budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP, tax cuts, a proposal for a minimal income for the unemployed, as well as cancellation of the plans to increase retirement ages. Though the new deficit budget fits into the EU’s limit of 3%, Italy’s debt of €2.3 trillion makes for a difficult case to increase spending. The news comes as a blow for the finance minister Giovanni Tria, who pushed for a more fiscally responsible budget, trying to limit budget deficit to 1.6% of GDP. The decision also received disapproval from Brussels, with EU Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici criticising Italy for “flouting the rules” and disregarding its large debt.  To discus