Investment Insights

At first sight, tighter US monetary policy and stubbornly high US inflation does not seem an ideal mix for bonds. There’s a lot more to it than that, argues James McAlevey, head of multi-sector fixed income. By embracing a broad opportunity set, investors can benefit from the potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns offered via active allocation.

The set-up for financial markets is more challenging in 2022, especially for core government bonds and fully valued equities, given the prospect of higher interest rates. In our new Talking heads podcast, Maya Bhandari gives her analysis of what this means for asset allocation.

Stronger economic fundamentals and vaccination progress mean the 2022 outlook for Asian equities, and more broadly global emerging market equities, is rosier now than it was at this time a year ago, argues Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities.

Leaving behind a momentous year marked by new phases of the pandemic and by sputtering efforts to re-start the global economy, we look ahead to 2022. Can we overcome the effects of issues such as disrupted supply chains and shifts in consumer demand? How can investors navigate the ‘rapids’ that will characterise the next stages of the economic recovery?

The recent UN climate change conference in Glasgow has if anything brought a broader focus on environmental issues and added to the growing awareness and momentum behind the need for positive change, argue Edward Lees and Ulrik Fugmann of the Environmental Strategies Group. Here they identify promising sectors and present their approach to sustainable investing.

The results of the recent COP26 climate change conference fall into the glass half full, glass half empty category. The onus now is on greater efforts to adapt to higher global temperatures as work on mitigating the temperature rise continues, says Alex Bernhardt, global head of sustainability research.

Confronted with low, but rising rates and frothy equity valuations, large investors are having to look elsewhere for investments offering both attractive long-run returns and modest to low volatility. Julien Halfon, head of pensions and corporate solutions, discusses the appeal of investing in private markets and harvesting the illiquidity premium while incorporating ESG selection criteria.

It has been a challenging year for investors in emerging markets – equities have lagged their developed market counterparts, EM debt has delivered a mixed performance. Covid outbreaks have hampered the economic recovery, while questions have arisen over China’s role as the engine of growth for EM exporters.

Globalisation, regulation and deregulation, digitalisation and innovation are playing an important role in reshaping economies, sectors and industries and these megatrends are creating thematic investment opportunities for investors. Koye Somefun, head of multi-asset solutions, sets out the characteristics of this approach and discusses the criteria investors should look at.

At first glance, bond markets these days may look like deserts – there is little or no yield on offer with large patches appearing barren or even offering only negative yields. That is to ignore a plethora of opportunities, argues Jean-Paul Chevé, head of the Fixed Income Insurance Team within the Specialty Fixed Income Product Group.

Investors with China exposure, or an appetite for it, face a raft of issues ranging from slower growth, which may or may not be condoned by Beijing, to toughened and expanded clampdowns on sectors. Add in persistent Sino-US tensions over geopolitics and a revitalised focus on greater common prosperity and this cocktail begs the question: How best to judge the outlook for China? Chi Lo, Senior Market Strategist APAC, puts the latest developments into context, voicing his confidence that sentiment towards the world’s second-largest economy will improve.

Convertible bonds are hybrid instruments combining bond and equity characteristics. As a result, they offer some equity upside, but with bond-like protection on the downside. If we are at the start of a cycle of rising interest rates, the option investors in these nominal assets (bonds) hold to convert to real assets (equities) could prove invaluable.

The S&P 500 stock index ended September down by 4.8%, its first monthly drop since January and the largest fall since March 2020. Vincent Nichols, investment specialist for US equities, reviews recent events and the outlook for US stocks.

At the centre of a pandemic-induced boom, stern regulation efforts and forays into new turf, the technology sector is making almost daily headlines and requires robust research to separate the possibilities from the pitfalls, argues Pamela Hegarty, lead portfolio manager with a focus on information technology and communication services.

Uncertainty over the macroeconomic landscape and the outlook for monetary policy currently combine with an awareness among investors that by many measures, valuations in public markets are on the high side. David Bouchoucha, head of our private debt and real assets team, talks about the characteristics that make private debt an attractive alternative.

What will be the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for the food and agriculture sector? How is the transition towards more sustainable food production and consumption affected? Agne Rackauskaite, co-portfolio manager of Impax Asset Management’s sustainable food strategy, gives investors her view on the post-pandemic outlook.

It is a win-win for companies to target the social aspects of doing business, next to environmental responsibility and proper governance, and it can be so for investors as well, argues senior portfolio manager Maria Luz Diaz Blanco.

In mid-June, Fed Chair Jay Powell pulled the rug from beneath the reflation trade by suggesting current inflation pressures were perhaps not transitory after all. Fixed income markets promptly reversed course with 10-year US Treasury yields last week trading as low as 1.25% after ending the first quarter at 1.70%. In this week’s podcast, Olivier de Larouziere, chief investment officer fixed income, explains what remains of the 2021 reflation trade. Listen to the podcast with Olivier de Larouziere, chief investment officer fixed income.

While many parts of the economy had to shut down as the coronavirus pandemic raged, the lights stayed on, water flowed from taps and internet connections buzzed. The crisis has highlighted the importance of the underlying infrastructure and, as Karen Azoulay explains, it was a useful reminder of the solidity of infrastructure debt as an asset class. Listen to the podcast with Karen Azoulay, head of infrastructure debt.

Addressing ecosystem restoration is just as pressing as tackling CO2 emissions and can generate billions of dollars of investment opportunities, as Ulrik Fugmann and Edward Lees, co-heads of the Environmental Strategies Group, explain.