Wealthtrack

In a recent essay published in The New York Times, Richard Bookstaber, a renowned risk expert, suggests that we may be on the brink of a new era of crisis. Drawing from his extensive experience in risk management, Bookstaber has a track record of identifying and addressing risks in both private and public institutions. As the Chief Risk Officer of Fabric, a platform focused on risk management for wealth managers and individuals, he has played a crucial role in navigating financial crises and working with regulatory bodies. Bookstaber's current analysis highlights several slow-motion risks that he believes pose significant threats to the economy, societal stability, and even civilization itself. These risks encompass climate change, demographic shifts, deglobalization, and artificial intelligence. Alongside these long-term concerns, Bookstaber also evaluates more immediate challenges that impact the economy and financial markets. With his vast expertise and historical insights, Bookstaber's perspective

Part 2 of 2 American investors have had a love-hate relationship with stocks since their early days of trading under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street in 1792. However, recent setbacks, including a challenging year for equities in 2022 and rising yields on fixed income investments, have led to a cooling of investor sentiment. We welcome back Savita Subramanian, an influential strategist serving as the Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research. She challenges the prevailing negative perception of stocks and presents research-backed evidence of their value as long-term investments. Subramanian, recognized as a top-ranked analyst by Institutional Investor for the last ten years and featured on Barron's list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for three consecutive years, her expertise is highly regarded in the industry. In part two of our interview with Subramanian, she sheds light on the significant market trends and explains why stocks should be considered for long-

David Rosenberg, a well-known economist, believes that the United States is in a recessionary bear market. He predicts that the S&P 500 will eventually bottom at 3100, and he has positioned his personal portfolio accordingly. Rosenberg's predictions are based on his analysis of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which he believes will lead to a recession. He also points to the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic as evidence that the economy is weakening. Rosenberg's views are in contrast to those of many other economists, who believe that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing. However, Rosenberg's track record suggests that he is worth listening to. In 2007, he predicted the subprime mortgage crisis, which turned into the Global Financial Crisis. Investors who are concerned about the economy should pay attention to Rosenberg's predictions. They may want to consider reducing their equity exposure and increasing their cash holdings. R

The recent aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve caused a crisis in some super-regional banks, but the damage has been contained and has not affected the entire banking industry. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes that the economic toll of such aggressive tightening could be different this time. Savita Subramanian, Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research, also shares this opinion and recommends stocks over bonds and cyclical sectors over defensive ones, contrary to most institutional investors surveyed by BofA. Subramanian has been named a top-ranked analyst by Institutional Investor for the last 10 years and to Barron’s list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for the past three years. WEALTHTRACK episode 1946, broadcast on May 12, 2023 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-owning-stocks-over-bonds-cyclicals-over-defensive-is-savita-subramanians-contrarian-call/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/sho

We have a very interesting guest who has publicly voiced a major policy difference on ESG investing. Terrence Keeley, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of 1PointSix LLC, left BlackRock, one of the world's largest investment managers, in July 2022 to publish his book, SUSTAINABLE: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing.  In his 40-year investment career, Keeley has never advised a client to invest in ESG, and he joins us to explain why ESG investing doesn't work and what does. This is a rare occasion for a top executive at a major investment firm to go public about a major policy difference.  WEALTHTRACK episode 1945, broadcast on May 5, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-esg-investing-doesnt-work-former-top-blackrock-executive-terrence-keeley-explains-why-and-what-does/ Bookshelf: Sustainable: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing https://amzn.to/3nAyAp9 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support

Part 2 of 2 We continue our interview with Ed Yardeni, an experienced economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who has been closely following the Fed throughout his 40-year investment career.  Yardeni is the author of “Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors” and head of his own global investment strategy firm, Yardeni Research. He believes that anticipating the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is critical to successful investing.  Despite the historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes over the past year, Yardeni thinks the Fed is done hiking interest rates for now. We will discuss whether "Don't Fight the Fed" still works as an investment strategy. WEALTHTRACK episode 1944 broadcast on Apr 28, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/does-dont-fight-the-fed-still-work-as-an-investment-strategy-strategist-ed-yardeni-responds/ Bookshelf: Fed Watching for Fun & Profit, A Primer for Investorshttps://amzn.to/42amRwr --- Su

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is considered the best financial executive in the country and recently weighed in on the banking system's recent turmoil. He believes that simply satisfying regulatory requirements is not sufficient in managing risks, which requires constant and vigilant scrutiny as the world evolves. He also points out that most of the risks in the U.S. banking system were hiding in plain sight and that recent changes in regulatory requirements would not have made a difference in what followed. Bill Wilby is a retired professional money manager with a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics who will discuss the problems with U.S. Treasuries and why financials are uninvestable. WEALTHTRACK episode 1943 broadcast on April 21, 2023 More info:  Bookshelf: Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technologyhttps://amzn.to/3H3goLq --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support

Part 1 of 2 After a tough 2022, big tech stocks are back and leading the market rally. According to research firm Strategas, ten stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce, AMD, and Broadcom, have accounted for 90% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains.  This dominance of a handful of stocks has investors facing some interesting choices, including cash, which is back with money market funds offering yields as high as 5%, and gold, which has recently traded near record territory at over two thousand dollars an ounce.  All of this is happening against a backdrop of the highest interest rates in years, stress in the banking system, and a Federal Reserve under pressure to pause its fight against inflation.  To discuss the outlook for the economy and markets, and the best course for investors, we are joined by Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, a PhD economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely fol

Part 2 of 2 Planning for retirement and replacing a work paycheck with savings can be a daunting task, especially with the current challenges of market declines, inflation, rising interest rates, and the threat of recession. Christine Benz, Morningstar's director of personal finance, is passionate about simplifying retirement portfolio planning and has identified six retirement blind spots: retirement date risk sequence-of-return risk  low-yield risk inflation risk  health care/long-term care risk  longevity risk  In this second of a two-part series on Building a Better Retirement, Benz explains how to mitigate these risks and offers solutions to ensure a financially secure retirement. WEALTHTRACK episode 1941 broadcsat on April 07, 2023 https://wealthtrack.com/retirement-blind-spots-and-how-to-fix-them-with-morningstars-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz/ Bookshelf: Morningstar's 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3G5rVcN Mor

This week, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate for the ninth consecutive time, bringing it to the highest level since September 2007. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the dilemma that the Fed officials faced, the banking system's turmoil has been a cause of concern following the recent bank failures. However, Powell assured that the banking system is sound and resilient, and the Federal Reserve is prepared to use all tools as needed to keep it safe and sound.  Dividend-paying stocks are gaining new respect among investors, and they are proving to be a protective asset in times of market volatility. ClearBridge Investments' Dividend Strategy Fund has been named one of "The Best Dividend Funds" for 2023 by Morningstar. Michael Clarfeld, co-portfolio manager of the fund, is with us to explain why high-quality companies with histories of growing their dividends are particularly valuable now. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1939 broadcast on March 24, 2023 More info about th

In this episode of WEALTHTRACK, leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow down the recovery. Lazar, a highly-ranked economist since 2001 and has been on Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for the past three years, offers valuable insights for investors and anyone interested in the state of the economy. WEALTHTRACK episode 1938 broadcast on March 17, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/wheres-the-recession-leading-economist-nancy-lazar-on-the-legacy-liquidity-still-fueling-the-economy/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

First Eagle’s small-cap portfolio manager, Bill Hench, has a long track record of beating the market and the competition by discovering hidden gems among small-cap stocks with short-term problems. WEALTHTRACK episode 1937, published on March 09, 2023 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Award-winning personal finance columnist Jonathan Clements discusses the number one topic among his HumbleDollar newsletter readers and a strategy to ease the burden.   WEALTHTRACK episode 1936 published on March 03, 2023   In this second week of the winter fund-raising season for Public Television, we are revisiting a very popular interview from award-winning personal finance reporter and HumbleDollar editor Jonathan Clements. He addresses the new financial realities of higher interest rates and inflation and the impact they are having on portfolios and financial planning. This is an additional excerpt that didn't make it in the original interview. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

This is additional commentary from Richard Clarida that didn't make it into the episode. Legendary Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was highly critical of the Fed’s policy of targeting 2% inflation, saying he saw “no theoretical justification” for it and that if successful, it “would mean the price level doubles in little more than a generation.” In this EXTRA exclusive, Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida defends the 2% solution. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

Investing can be simple and accessible to the average person, says financial thought leader and economist Burton Malkiel. Malkiel, author of the investment classic "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," has 50 years of research to back up his claim. In his latest edition of the book, Malkiel emphasizes that investors would be better off buying and holding a broad-based index fund rather than attempting to buy and sell individual securities or actively managed mutual funds. Malkiel's beliefs are supported by the track record of an investor who invested $10,000 in an index fund in 1977 and saw it grow to over $2 million by 2022, while an investor who purchased shares in the average actively managed mutual fund only saw the investment grow to $1.47 million. Despite the changes in the market and the array of investment products and strategies available, Malkiel remains convinced of the validity of his original thesis. He explains why he still believes in the principles of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and offers hi

Part 2 of 2 Matthew McLennan will assess the investment climate in international markets and tell us where he is finding world-class companies selling at substantial discounts to their U.S. peers. The global economic outlook for 2023 is uncertain with the World Bank cutting its growth forecast to 1.7% from 3% and stating the "global economy is perilously close to a recession". The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its growth estimate to 2.9% due to China's reopening and slowing inflation. Central banks, especially in developed countries, are tightening to fight inflation, which may hinder future growth. The European Central Bank and the Fed have both raised short-term rates and signaled more increases in the future. A recent survey of 1200 CEOs shows 98% expect a global recession, with more than half fearing a recession worse than the 2008 financial crisis. In Part 1, we discussed the risks and opportunities in the U.S. markets with McLennan. WEALTHTRACK episode 1932 broadcast on February 03, 2023 M

Part 1 of 2 The Federal Reserve is currently facing a debate on Wall Street about how much longer it will continue to fight against inflation. The Fed's goal is to bring the inflation rate down to a long-term average of around 2%. Some investors believe that the Fed will continue to stay the course and keep fighting inflation, while others are tracking the slowdown in inflation indicators and believe that the Fed may cut rates in the second half of the year. Matthew McLennan, Co-Head of the Global Value team at First Eagle Investments, is a leading global value manager with a successful track record of investing in the U.S. and overseas. McLennan will examine the risks of monetary and fiscal tightening amidst high debt levels in the U.S. and discuss the types of companies that can succeed despite these challenges. WEALTHTRACK episode 1931 broadcast on January 27, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-global-value-manager-matt-mcclennan-on-companies-that-thrive-despite-us-investment-risks/ Bookshelf:

The best advice investors could have received at the start of 2022 was to not fight the Federal Reserve as it embarked on its most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 40 years. By raising the federal funds rate and continuing to hike, investors who recognized the impact on bond and stock prices could have avoided a lot of pain. As we move into 2023, the best advice for investors remains the same - "Don't fight the Fed." The Federal Reserve is being clear about its intentions to continue raising short-term interest rates and tapering its bond purchases until it reaches its target of bringing inflation down to 2%. Richard Clarida, a highly respected expert in Fed policy and Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell, will be discussing these topics and more in this episode. He is currently a Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO, where he previously coined the phrase "New Neutral" in 2014, predicting that short-term interest rates would remain low for longer. He is also a key architect of

Charles Ellis, also known as "Charley," is a highly influential thinker in the investing world. He has been a frequent guest on WEALTHTRACK for 17 years and is considered "Wall Street's Wisest Man" by Money magazine. He has authored 20 books, with the most famous being "Winning the Loser's Game," which is now in its 8th edition. In 2022, he published "Figuring it Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questions," a collection of his most thoughtful and thought-provoking articles and essays. In Part One of our interview, Ellis discussed how much the investing world has changed over the years and his recommendation for individuals to take a total financial portfolio approach to financial planning. In part two of his exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview, he discusses how individuals can create the best financial plan for their specific situation. WEALTHTRACK episode 1929 broadcast on January 13, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/building-a-financial-plan-to-match-your-unique-needs-with-investm

In the past, stock investing focused on individual companies and their specific attributes, with a relatively small percentage of the population participating. However, the markets have since expanded, and market participation, particularly through retirement accounts, has increased significantly. This has led to the realization that macro factors, such as the global economy, geopolitics, and domestic politics, are important to consider in investment decisions. Jason De Sena Trennert, Co-Founder and CEO of Strategas Research Partners, is an expert in the macro picture. Strategas has been voted the top independent macro research provider by Institutional Investor for six consecutive years. Trennert discusses the major macro themes that will shape the investment climate for the foreseeable future. WEALTHTRACK episode 1928 broadcast on January 06, 2023 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/leading-investment-strategist-jason-trennert-identifies-four-macro-themes-shaping-his-portfolios/ --- Support this podcast: